I'm long RHT but am a conservative investor, and have a number of concerns at this point. Going to discuss these below. My (very) conservative valuation indicates 50 cents at a MINIMUM to the current share price.
USA: Looks like as they ramp up # of patients, scrutiny increases and eligibility constraints increase. And guidance is likely 'naive' to quote lisa, especially when you consider the pipe dream they were selling of 85%+ gross margins and 35k+ patients onboarded. Realistically that would probably look like a 60-65% gross margin and 10-15k (eligible) patients onboarded. I don't trust any guidance provided so far so will be readjusting my calculations to be more bearish on the US side of business. Maybe the valuation here is 20-40 cents.
Vancouver: I really think this is the most promising part of Reliq's business. I've posted my valuation spreadsheet previously in this forum, and believe it should add 20-40 cents depending on Premier's expansion speed to valuation. Massive scalability potential, especially with Ontario. Its a win-win for Doug Ford from a PR standpoint. Additionally codes and systems appear to be a lot friendlier to work with. If Ontario is secured, MASSIVE catalyst.
Australia: Same thing applies as Vancouver, with the caveat that its a trial. Maybe valued at 5 cents given uncertain future, but definitely upside here.
Balance sheet: I'll assume 10 cents for cash and tax carryforward.
What happens to patients that are not eligible, do they not get service?
Even if they report super strong subscriber numbers during the end of the month, the question becomes will they get paid for them.
Are subscribers unwilling to pay $50 per month for this service?
Have there been subscribers who have paid the monthly fee and then stopped using the service?