RE:RE:Would you be in favor of a TCW and CFW Merger?Trican has a 30% frac share and Calfrac has closer to 20% after moving equip out of the WCSB to the states. A deal would never happen due to monopoly concerns, calfrac high debt.
My earlier post underestimated Wilks Bros current %. I did not take into account the 30M shares which TCW bot back from Oct to Oct 2018. Wilks holds just under a 9% stake and would be required to divulge if/when they go over 10%.
Trican is in a tough spot. Pristine balance sheet but not the kind of ability to make a play for a US fraccer unless they want to demolish their finances and get back in the same boat they were in 2014/2015. The stock is beat up at .50x book so using as currency for a deal is a moot point at these levels.
Best strategy is to continue to buyback shares and once stock back above 4 then pick off dirt cheap WCSB service names both public/private. Higher rates from the BOC is going to level the private service co's who have been treading water since 2014. Pvt. co's generally pay a much higher rate and this will do nothing but go higher.
NikMten wrote:
Personally I would vote no,
CFW has too much debt and its overhead is crazy.
Also, theres no way the queens bench would approve it. TCW and CFW together would represent 1 million HP. they'd be at about 80% of active HP in the market at that point.
Or what anti-trust laws define as a monopoly lol.