PINL:GRPOF - Post by User
Comment by
TripleEmon Nov 01, 2018 7:06am
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Post# 28906344
RE:RE:The NUMBERS with modest assumptions, looks outstanding!
RE:RE:The NUMBERS with modest assumptions, looks outstanding!And you're still here? For what?, Nothing? You should ask yourself who is the REAL pathetic lunatic here? HAHAHAHA,
gkmackdadzzz1 wrote: You’re a pathetic, lunatic. Still pumping daily, huh?
LeafRider wrote: As an investor Tetra Bio-Pharma I feel my money is invested into assets that are on the verge of something revolutionary. Having the first ever prescription smokable cannabis product which can be sold globally with insurance coverage sounds fairly revolutionary to me. Tack on PPP002 (synthetic Dronabinol with improved delivery already approved by the FDA) and PPP005 (cannabis oil 3 strains), I feel confident to let my funds ride on Tetra with an expectation that one day Tetra Bio-Pharma will be along side a company like GW Pharma. Quite honestly we could one day be bought out by GW Pharma. It's hard to tell who will want Tetra's DIN#s more, a company like Aphria will definitely help commercialize these products for a large chunch of revenue.
Either way I really wanted to run the numbers on what the reality of the situation looks like for me as an investor. Now some people could probably dispute my assumptions but I frankly don't give a $hit. I've made modest assumptions and I feel these numbers are realistic.
First I want to establish a profit per patient per year to better get a feel for the potential windfall of 100,000 prescribed patients worldwide, which in my opinion is only a drop in the bucket for Tetra, but somethign I see as being realistic because with licensing deals some of the sales will be going to partnering companies and not 100% to Tetra's bottom line. Since we're prudent investors these assumptions should stay modest and scaled up in your own mind to help you get a better understanding for global revenue potential and then relate that to the SP gains... For me this isn't a "pump" this is our reality here on a small scale, if this goes like some are thinking it might based on DIN# and insurance eligibility + opioid sparing clinical for chronic pain for PPP001 in addition to the cancer and breakthrough pain markets. This could easily go to 500,000 prescriptions worldwide without a doubt in my mind.
To simplify things I posted 2 links below for your consumption, but supports my assumptions. Fentanyl and oxy's apparently cost about $4000 a year for the patient and if you assume a 30% profit margin from that, and it could be greater than that this number will effect these number substantially. You can run the numbers as you like. For Tetra (taking the average monthly cost of fentanyl and oxy x 12 months). What does that looking like? $1200 pure profit after costs, fees, etc. . That modest assumption equates to $120 million in annual profit with 100,000 patients. 5 years out 500,000 patients $600 million.
The next number you need to assume is 3.7x multiplier which is the assumed average for the pharma industry also shown below for reference.
2 Examples:
Numbers:
- 3.7x $120 mil = $444 million market cap (100k patients world wide)
- 3.7x $600 mil = $2.22 billion market cap (500k patients world wide through Tetra and just PPP001)
*Shareprice adjustments (not factoring any kind of diluted financing which is likely to take place at some point - just round down your share price). This is factoring in just PPP001 potential and nothing else. Which it's obvious that the PPP002 and 005 will deliver in their own right, some see 005 as having more possiblity for prescriptions than the smokable product, but both will have their time to shine. Inhalation is said to be the #1 delivery method for breakthrough / cancer pain, while oil and ingestion is likely to be more favourable for chronic pain scenarios.
-$1 SP = $134 million market cap
- $3.31 SP= $444 million MC
- $16.57 SP = $2.22 billion MC
Guy Chamberland is about to be filthy rich. He knows it, but intends to be very patient with the process and so should we. There is zero urgency for me to sell my shares, in fact I sure hope the smart money didn't sell in the middle of the BS flying around last week.
You should read this link gives you the average cost per month for fentanyl and oxy related presecriptions in California study;
Link: https://my.amcp.org/data/jmcp/Research-132-140.pdf
Supportive Link to assist with valuation assumptions:
https://cogentvaluation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/Pharmaceuticals-4Q-2017.pdf