What will VII's CFlow Be at $65 Condy ($WTI)In Q3 Condy sold for $79/bbl and natgas was $3.65 per Mcf.
If Condy sells for $65 in Q4 the net is $14per bbl on 35% of the product mix or $4.90 per boe.
If natgas sells for $4.50 that is $0.95 per mcf more than Q3. Bulking to boe and multipling by 40% of product flow we see an increase $2.3 per boe. The net difference is $2.62 on 220,000 BOED, we would see a a reduction in Cflow $52.4 Million.
As the Condy price gets back to normal we could easily see 70-75 per barrel.
Prolonged cold could see spot prices in December well above $4.00. The HH spot price today is $3.50 ish per Mcf.
I'll spill the beans here. VII's gas is about 42.4 MJ/m3 as opposed to the 37.4 MJ/M3 basis. That alone is a 13% uplift over the posted gas prices.