RE:Some are moving in right direction - not VII thoughI think Friday morning action on AAV, TOU etc was combination of WTI going down at the same time as TSX and DOW were tanking. Once the fear trades dissipated, all the names you mentioned bounced back up based on US nat gas going up 8%. Still, if you think about it, with an 8% comodity move, one would expect more up move on the dry gas stocks, but I'm guessing that's been tempered with the less visible AECO levels. From the group, AAV bounced the most, as it's more diversified into US than some others (ECA still suffers from the deal overhang, IMO). TOU has lot of its production hedged, and PEY is mostly AECO, so I guess with all these factors in mind, the day's results make sense. Aside from VII, of course, which moved with WTI evidently, as discussed earlier.
I guess the upside to VII in all this is that the bias towartd WTI movement while being fundamentally a gas stock, the intrinsic value versus enterprise value gap is widening, making VII effectively an even better bargain, IMO. Assuming one of these days the funds get their heads out of their buts and fundamentally re-price VII for what it is, a diversified cash flow machine, that value gap should close and we migh see 30 bucks again. Big question is, what will it take for VII to disassociate itself from the WTI correlation. My guess is that two or three more quarters of solid cash flow will do that. In the meantime, I'll be buying the dips, taking advantage of the WTI correlation behaviour. Hopefuly I won't go broke before the re-pricing happens ...
GLTA