55.40 Listening to the BNN on analyst said refinery production needs to get up to 93% and he expect that in two weeks from now. Last year fouth quater average price was 55.40 U.S. for condensate so it looks like the WTI prices will be fine. So in the next two weeks the refineries start kicking in, we have cold weather hitting the United States and we have not had a gas draw year, and spot prices are closse to 4 dollars U.S. so it looks like the perfect storm.
Effectively USA has decided they will be the swing producer, and the mechanism will be to grant waiver to IRAN's customers if the balance get out of wack. I am sure opec feels held hostage here.
So if at 60 U.S. dollars we can get 78 dollars for condensate that will be great.
Last quater they did not sell 180,000 boe of condensate, they expect to sell it in the fourth quater. Last quater they sold 87.3 thousand boe a day of condensate, so i expect over 90,000 boe a day of condensate sales in the fourth quater.
Fouth quater production is usually up about 10,000 boe unless there is some operational issue. So i expect at least 230,000 boe but 240,000 boe would be great.
Gas prices are great, and the market is a bit nervous, condensate should firm up here in the next few weeks and the U.S. refineries come back on stream. My guess is two more weeks of instability.
However we should get our first gas draw next week hopefully and i can see gas a five dollars U.S. thatn is about 6.50 Canadian or 40 a boe, that will make a big difference.
IMHO