RE:We need the refineries to come on, 2 weeks to recoveryI also agree with you on all the metrics;
particularly going into 2019 we could really turn the corner year-over-year
if condy firms up, nat gas goes to 5usd, aeco averages 2.50-3.00 for the winter and 2019 forward pricing stays at least flat from 2019, we will make your 2.2B, IMO. I think production issues are behind us, efficiencies will still only improve going forward, on drilling, with the tripple stacks, as well as gas processing, and transportation capacity poses no risk.
Big question is capital budget - if futures get a bump and heding strategy stays the same, they could spend more capex and crank up the volume quite a bit, which would produce a big CF number. Question remains whether they will decide to drive volume or efficiencies. If they go for efficiencies, some of the FCF might go to NCIB instead of drilling. I'm guessing they're waiting to see what futures pricing will be once we hit January - if they can lock up futures at a good price, the're likely to drill rather than save by way of NCIB or efficiencies enhancement projects - smart move to delay capex budget until January, IMO.