RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Prediction for Tuesday Apr 3 2018
1) Until recent, the cannabis market was fueled largely by speculation driven by hype and greed. And of course, this is always true for penny stocks or unproven companies. I heard a BNN analyst claim cannabis investors are first time investors. Not sure if this is accurate, but if true there could be several weak hands holding stocks.
2) The hype train is slowing down. The market is returning to investment fundamentals. Growth or the potential thereof will drive share price. How does the company look on a balance sheet? How aggressive is the company? Has management done a good job, do they have a good track record? Are they open about the direction and how they will grow business? Is there evidence of plan execution? Are they hitting hard dates and production targets?
3) I believe, like many others, the closer to legalization date the closer the market will adhere to investment fundamentals. I predict 1 more surge followed by a big selloff. I believe it will happen just before, or just after, the legalization date (the bubble burst many anticipate).
4) If there is no burst, then a gradual correction will follow. MJ companies are grossly over-valued and all of them will undergo correction. The big players and those with healthy balance sheets will see their share value stabilize in short order.
5) Either way, there will be a sell off. No problem, serious investors will return, stabilize the market, and life will go on. Do you believe returning investors will purchase shares backed by weak/no revenues? Are you confident MGW will be growing by then?
6) MGW has no license to grow, no license to sell, and it looks doubtful they will have them in time for legalization. The dealer’s license can take 6-9 months to approve. MGW started the application this month. No matter, they can generate income from the US plants. Oh wait, those aren't running either. Do you have a date as to when the US plants will begin production? I don't. And if you don’t have an answer, doesn’t that worry you?
So, with a flooded market, no hype train, and fierce competition, who do you think will invest in a company with no revenues? If the balance sheet proves a sad read, what will be done to maintain buyer interest? Do you like what you've seen thus far? I worry the share value will drop very low, and remain low for a good while.
And comparrisons will be made. Similar sized market caps are generating revenue right now, heck they are flogging product through their websites, have set up agreements with pharmaceutical companies, some are exporting product, and working on promoting their brand. MGW will be compared to them in terms of value, not Aurora. How do you think they will fair in comparison?
MGW could make profits one day, but it won't be for a while, and for those invested with long positions and who entered at a high price, well they may have to endure a serious decline in share value, and hold on to those shares for a good while until the company is operational and probably a bit longer until they are profitable. There is risk and we all accept it. However, the question remains, should we sell now, or wait it out? I don't feel there is enough information coming from the company to make that decision.
Can you answer any of these questions:
-Do you know when the company expects to start operations?
-What is the profit forecast in the first quarter, second quarter, all the way up to the first year?
-Do you know of any sales agreements with any retail or pharma business to date?
-Is the company building its brand?
-They have a Chinese office, are you aware of any action plans on that front?
-Emphasis was placed on oil sales. Oil requires a high-quality yield and extraction. When will that most likely happen?
-Have you seen a company presentation (PDF format) showcase the business plan?
-What are the company’s expectations? What are their goals and when do they expect to reach them?
Conclusion:
MGW must de-risk their shares to attract future shareholders. If no action is taken, we could languish in penny land and suffer at the hands of the day trader. Some will sell at a loss and others will watch their value be flipped and shorted until the stock becomes a worthy Long Position. Do you believe MGW has done a good job of attracting serious shareholders?
Anyone worried about the equity they hold in this company should pressure MGW to answer the questions above. I have now sent multiple emails and texts. I will follow up with a phone call next week. I think they need to be more open with us, frankly. They are running this outfit like a private business. They need to run it more like a publicly traded venture.
I want to know what they are planning. For us long term investors, we shouldn't be banking on hope and hype, we need to be properly informed so we in turn can make informed decisions about our money.
RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Prediction for Tuesday Apr 3 2018
I made no comparison with Aurora. What was the point I made? To highlight my own ignorance. I was unaware Aurora had reached as far as Germany. I though MGW's presence in the US was the first expansion for the industry outside of Canada.
So, that is all you got from my post? That's it, right? You quoted the entire comment and responded to 1 thing, inaccurately.
Amazing.
Here is some food for thought:
1) Until recent, the cannabis market was fueled largely by speculation driven by hype and greed. And of course, this is always true for penny stocks or unproven companies. I heard a BNN analyst claim cannabis investors are first time investors. Not sure if this is accurate, but if true there could be several weak hands holding stocks.
2) The hype train is slowing down. The market is returning to investment fundamentals. Growth or the potential thereof will drive share price. How does the company look on a balance sheet? How aggressive is the company? Has management done a good job, do they have a good track record? Are they open about the direction and how they will grow business? Is there evidence of plan execution? Are they hitting hard dates and production targets?
3) I believe, like many others, the closer to legalization date the closer the market will adhere to investment fundamentals. I predict 1 more surge followed by a big selloff. I believe it will happen just before, or just after, the legalization date (the bubble burst many anticipate).
4) If there is no burst, then a gradual correction will follow. MJ companies are grossly over-valued and all of them will undergo correction. The big players and those with healthy balance sheets will see their share value stabilize in short order.
5) Either way, there will be a sell off. No problem, serious investors will return, stabilize the market, and life will go on. Do you believe returning investors will purchase shares backed by weak/no revenues? Are you confident MGW will be growing by then?
6) MGW has no license to grow, no license to sell, and it looks doubtful they will have them in time for legalization. The dealer’s license can take 6-9 months to approve. MGW started the application this month. No matter, they can generate income from the US plants. Oh wait, those aren't running either. Do you have a date as to when the US plants will begin production? I don't. And if you don’t have an answer, doesn’t that worry you?
So, with a flooded market, no hype train, and fierce competition, who do you think will invest in a company with no revenues? If the balance sheet proves a sad read, what will be done to maintain buyer interest? Do you like what you've seen thus far? I worry the share value will drop very low, and remain low for a good while.
And comparrisons will be made. Similar sized market caps are generating revenue right now, heck they are flogging product through their websites, have set up agreements with pharmaceutical companies, some are exporting product, and working on promoting their brand. MGW will be compared to them in terms of value, not Aurora. How do you think they will fair in comparison?
MGW could make profits one day, but it won't be for a while, and for those invested with long positions and who entered at a high price, well they may have to endure a serious decline in share value, and hold on to those shares for a good while until the company is operational and probably a bit longer until they are profitable. There is risk and we all accept it. However, the question remains, should we sell now, or wait it out? I don't feel there is enough information coming from the company to make that decision.
Can you answer any of these questions:
-Do you know when the company expects to start operations?
-What is the profit forecast in the first quarter, second quarter, all the way up to the first year?
-Do you know of any sales agreements with any retail or pharma business to date?
-Is the company building its brand?
-They have a Chinese office, are you aware of any action plans on that front?
-Emphasis was placed on oil sales. Oil requires a high-quality yield and extraction. When will that most likely happen?
-Have you seen a company presentation (PDF format) showcase the business plan?
-What are the company’s expectations? What are their goals and when do they expect to reach them?
Conclusion:
MGW must de-risk their shares to attract future shareholders. If no action is taken, we could languish in penny land and suffer at the hands of the day trader. Some will sell at a loss and others will watch their value be flipped and shorted until the stock becomes a worthy Long Position. Do you believe MGW has done a good job of attracting serious shareholders?
I don't await your response, Commeilfaut. I fully expect you to focus on 1 point and get it wrong, failing that you'll attack my grammar, maybe. Thanks for coming out.
Anyone worried about the equity they hold in this company should pressure MGW to answer the questions above. I have now sent multiple emails and texts. I will follow up with a phone call next week. I think they need to be more open with us, frankly. They are running this outfit like a private business. They need to run it more like a publicly traded venture.
I want to know what they are planning. For us long term investors, we shouldn't be banking on hope and hype, we need to be properly informed so we in turn can make informed decisions about our money.