Some observations:The commonly-held view is that the semi-conductor sector is very cyclical. If so, capital spending in this sector is going to be more cyclical. So T.PHO should be more cyclically-sensitive than the overall SOX. So the stock should be more volatile for this reason alone (there are obviously other reasons such as company size…).
If you index the SOX and T.PHO to January 2016 =100 just as the huge rise in the SOX was beginning, then T.PHO has three major “corrections”. Assuming this is a correction, and then it has been the deepest, taking T.PHO right back to the indexed level of the SOX. This would make sense as there is a capital spending slowdown that has become evident. Key question is whether semi-conductor industry is entering a major cyclical downswing or not.
I try to follow market patterns from an Elliot Wave perspective though you have to view this with at least some skepticism. At least in this case it is a way of distracting me from the implications of the price decline in PHO.T. It also has its own lingo which is almost incomprehensible to people who aren’t acquainted with it. Not surprisingly I find it is best for explaining what has happened. One view is that the SOX has finished a complex correction that began at the end of January 2018. This would be very good news for it would suggest that the capital spending slowdown may be more temporary than people might think. If so then the bottom of the SOX was reached at the very end of October.
This is an extremely deep correction in T.PHO – a Fibonacci 61.8 of the entire rise from $.04 to $2.60 is $1.02. It seems to be made up of a triple 3 W-X-Y-X-Z which is a rare combination. The last “wave” down from $1.80 (wave c of Z) is very long. Wave Zc5 still has to complete which could take T.PHO down to 1.90. This should be the end of the entire correction from $2.60. Hoping there is a significant rebound – a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the decline would take PHO.T back to $1.62.