RE:RE:RE:RED ALERT THE GOLD FAKE OUT CAT BOUNCEThat's a pretty nice response, although I have a different angle to take.
But first, thoughts on manners: I enjoy these bear cases partly because it seems hard to make a bear case against RNX at all. I wish all bear posts were argumentative, like this one, instead of expressing strong feelings with aggressive words. The same goes for people bashing bears, although it seems almost justified by some of the pointless bashing you see from time to time. But even if Dan were a paid basher, I would still like to read the bear case the best he can put it. What I hate is the pointless posts, by either side (bull or bear).
I admit that on the TSX the loss of the uptick rule allows for too much stock manipulation by shorting. That was a bad idea by the regulator. I can't know whether that is happening on RNX, but the case for it isn't bad. I am persuaded by Geodan that short interest in this stock is much higher than it appears, and share his mystification as to why. These last few posts from Dan help to assess why- which gives a little more context, potentially, than simply blaming stock manipulation. Both may be true, which is why it is best not to be satisfied with conspiracy theories alone, even if they are partly true.
Now, for disagreement: it seems to me that in the specific case of RNX at this moment in time, that book value is not a useful criterion for judgement. The realistic expectation of turning potential gold into actual liberated gold is very high, and at high volume. This a) [realistic] b) [short term] expectation justifies an outlay of risk that is probably much higher than 50-60 cents per share. Some context applies, like the value of their other nickle mine, but the 1-6 month outlook of Beta Hunt alone is by far the main driver. Commentors that note that this is a unique situation are correct, in my estimation.
As for increasing interest rates- I'm not excellent in this area, but- America is becoming more nationalistic. As it goes in this direction, having a higher dollar becomes less valuable (because it depends less on buying inports). This opens up the opportunity of deflating the USD to help pay off debts, which I believe is the view taken by the president. Before he was elected, he noted that printing money is a viable option for the USA to pay off debt. This coheres with a nationalist take. This means inflation, which is, I take it, a main driver for buying gold.
The time horizons on the macro-economics- thoughts in the above paragraph- are unclear to me. But, they do indeed support investment in gold. Gold companies have stagnated, as Dan noted, but they may also be a premise supporting a conclusion to buy, rather than wait. Timing is hard to judge.