RE:RE:RE:RE:Technical Analysisgairvine wrote: What I find interesting is how the technical and momentum analysts seem to start talking value when their picks ( and the market ) go south. There is always a justification to keep people trading. So here is what I think after many years of investing ( not trading ) and having a portfolio that has generated a modest but consistent 9% ( net of fees ): 1) Analysts, brokers, etc., are salesmen pure and simple; do your own dd; 2) anyone who professes to have a clue about the long term direction of commodity prices is full of sh**; 3) avoid companies with high debt; 4) keep your investing costs low; 5) invest in companies with good and proven long term management and that are prudent managers of money 6) value will ultimately emerge. Whenever I’ve messed up it’s because I’ve ignored my own advise ( i.e. be disciplined ). My other pet peeve at the moment is companies that are solid and stable that feel the need to grow through merger and acquisition and take on big debt to do so rather than growing organically ( but that’s another story ). Anyway, just a bit of a rant. Regards, Glen
Having done my own investing for about the past 10 years, I've learned to follow Points 3 to 5 (highlighted above) within a fairly strict threshold. It doesn't mean that I NEVER invest in a highly leveraged company... but I keep the position smaller, with a tighter stop loss, as I've had too many of these type of positions go wrong on me in the past.
With regard to your last point about taking on big debt to grow through M&A when perhaps that's not the best decision... I'm assuming that if you follow Point 5, then you won't run into a problem. At the first sign of poor decision-making which goes against your better judgment, then it's best to just sell and walk away.