RE:RepositioningYour math is wrong imo ... unless I still need more coffee
You can't have 300 mill shares without doing the 10:1 swap (shares will be closer to 200 million plus another 17 million in warrants) and without the swap you can't say 50 cents. So you are comparing a VERY inaccurate share count vs a fictitious SP of 50 cents.
If you think the companies value will be worth 1.5 billion then at 200 million shares that would be be $7.5 per share - all after the 10:1 swap
Not suggesting that you shouldn't sell your warrants - only saying your math is way off
Don2018 wrote: I decided to sell all of my warrants and replace them with an equivalent value in shares, as anything up to a share price of 50 cents makes it a winning trade. It also removes the risk of the warrants expiring worthless if everything goes to hell-in-a-handbasket. I also wonder if people will be willing to pay 75-85 cents for the warrants once the consolidation takes place. It is one thing to pay 8 cents, but paying 80 cents might make people pause.
Of course, I lose the Vegas-win potential if the share price goes a lot higher, but if I have learned anything over the years, those Vegas-wins are elusive. And now that BBI no longer carries the "big buyout" potential, I had to look at the fundamentals.
Even when we reach the 30,000 boed level, we will likely have somewhere in the area of 300 million shares (before 10/1 swap) plus whatever debt accumulates along the way. Right now, BBI/PEC would likely fetch about $50,000/boed, for an enterprise value of $1.5 billion. Even without the debt factored in, that is only 50 cents per share.
Of course, we could be worth much more than $50,000/boed if the price of oil is a lot higher in 3 years, that is the big unknown.
I am still confident that the new company will do very well, but the sky-high potential evaporated with this merger. I am looking for that double-plus, which is still a great return in a couple of years, but didn't want to risk losing it all.
This is just the way I have decided to play the merger, and is in no way any kind of advice how others should act. I am more of a chicken than I used to be. :o)