RE:RE:RE:sorry to disappoint the bears VOKBLVR, your post here was a bit of an eye opener for me. Untill last week , I understood that the $25 million upgrade was primarily to be spent within the mill building , upgrade flotation and filtering, and other relatively minor upgrades that could be done without major disruptions to daily production.
However over the weekend I started to suspect that it was indeed increases to the mining and development that are to be the focus over the next six months or so. You seem to have confirmed this. I agree 100% that AISC costs will rise not fall, and the necessary upgrades will be a huge challenge for the miners.
Development rates of 700 metres per month are probably stretching their abilities already ... Im guessing 850 -900 metres will be required. Joe O's speculation as to the feasibility of doubling the number of active stopes does not inspire confidence....... not saying it cant be done but the difficulties inrease exponentially.
In no particular order, if three long hole drills are required to support 2700 tpd , then one more drill has to be necessary to support 3500+ tpd. To get 900 metres of development , at least one more truck and one more LHD will be necessary. Plus at least one more rock bolter., Round numbers about $1 million each. But this is trivial. The main mine ventilation system was designed for 2700 TPD. Legal minimum is 100 cfm per diesel HP. This system is getting stetched big time and the Mines Inspection Dept tends to pay a lot of attention to this matter.
Then there is the paste fill distribution . This is a lot more complicated than air or watersystems. The paste must be kept moving at quite a well defined speed. Too slow , and the material sets up in the pipes, too fast and the pipes wear out, provided the electric motors dont burn out first. I suspect the existing system will have to be duplicated to support 3800tpd.
We know right now there are about 6 active stopes , plus three more being drilled off, plus at least one being filled. plus one or two more being prepped at any one time....... say 12 total, as previosly reported. To say that 6 increases to 10-12, three goes to 4, etc etc , we now need 18 or more.
I just cant see it. This is a new mine of limited size. I have no doubt the crusher and conveyors can handle 3800tpd, but the support services that have to move along the main ramp rapidly become a major bottleneck. Regardless , the operators will continue to move towards their goal , and by this time next year we will see whether they have bitten off more than is possible within a rather small , tight environment