UpdateSorry, I have been busy lately.
For boozehead, good for you if you shorted, you were only lucky with the Amarin stupid placebo story, Fidelity walking out (drooped 3 M shares) and Q3 disclosure silent on any commercial potential deal, the timing for a short till mid december was good.
About Jan, I not a fan, i think she didn't deliver her promise and if Neptune (Mario) didn't vote in favor, she would have been quick out. Unfortunalty, with the phase 3 results coming next fall, STRENGTH trial (13k patients) and AGA around of August, the odds are that she will remain in place. My point of view, is that the only key player is Pierre Lemieux, the other one are irrelevants.
That being said, the SP is still desapointing. The next catalsysts are te follwoing:
1) I am expecting before YE, 100% enrollment.
2) Around mid February, 100% randomization.
3) End of phase 3, around end of August.
4) Strenght results, around end of October. this 13k patients will be the rocket for Acasti. As per Amarin Reduce-it, the 4gr dosage seems to be the real trigger for signicant MACE impact. Epanova will comfirm if the mix of EPA and DHA have better result than only EPA.
I hope that Acasti will disclose phase 3 results after Epanova, to get both uplift and benefit the speculation.
Unfortunately, for the short term, if I was advising Acasti, I would recommand not to signed any commercial deal which is bad for the SP:
a) Acasti is fully funded
b) Amarin might be bought by a big pharma for over $10B
c) Strenght results are key for Acasti and the 4gr seems to be the important trigger.
Till next summer, interest will only grow.
I am expecting to see a $300M market cap next summer, which is $4Cdn/$3US.
Depending of all above, after that, we could se a $10 pretty quicky... :)
This is only my opinion, good luck to all the longs.
Merry Christmas and don't sell under panic!