RE:But you didn't take into account costs.Your #s seem pretty good, but I would need to spend time analyzing and go through everything. From a ball park prediction, I am estimating this quarter they do around $ 72 M - $ 75 M USD net income due to:
Increased production
Higher grade corporate-wide
Better spot gold as as skrider said $ 1230 for the quarter seems right
Next year they will be averaging easily greater than $ 75 M net income a quarter. Probably higher as they year goes on.
The only added costs for 2019 when looking at the 2019 guidance is
GROWTH CAPEX goes up by around $ 60 M (due to the work at Macassa # 4 shaft), but SUSTAINING CAPEX is poised to remain at same level as 2018...very good thing.
Yes we are definitely undervalued still based on PEG. Once Q4 comes out February, will be easier to get a better read on true PE ratio as well. I think this is why market has put in a floor around $ 31 CAD.
Not only that, but other catalysts are macro in picture notably:
- Continued pressure by Trump (and now today Navarro) blasting the Fed to stop the hikes
- Continued drops in equity markets (yes Powell does use the stock market health as a barometer as one of the Fed measures albeit not a prime measure, but still of relevance)
- Massive citizen debt and corporate leverage...if rates overheat, huge danger to the credit markets
- Already Fed hinting that neutral rates are near
I would say the odds of a hike Wednesday are now 50/50 after the latest 500 point sell-off Friday and now another 500 + pts today.
Or they do one last hike, and then basically change the dot plot for 2019 showing rates are near neutral IF indeed they hike Wednesday.
Basically, I say there are 1-2 hikes MAXIMUM left from right now to end of 2019. More would crash markets.
The set-up for spot gold has not looked this good in years.
JIN
Goldbug52 wrote: To be honest, no I didn't. The way I have it figured out is that no additional costs should be involved. They haven't hired additional miners, they're not using additional diesel (don't know how much of that they're actually using since from what I know they're using a lot of battery powered equipment), their management costs should be unaffected. In fact all those costs have probably gone down as they're nominated in local currencies which have gone down in US $ terms. I think the only costs that have gone up is their exploration and drilling costs, hopefully they don't throw too big a wrench into my optimistic scenario. Thoughts?