Aphria Inc. APHA

Aphria, which is headquartered in Ontario, produces and sells medicinal and recreational cannabis. The company operates through retail and wholesale channels in Canada and internationally. Aphria is a main distributor of medical cannabis to Germany and has operations in over 10 countries outside of Canada. However, it does not have exposure to the U.S. CBD or THC markets due to the constraints of federal prohibition. It has some U.S. exposure through the acquisition of SweetWater, a craft brewer

NDAQ:APHA - Post by User

Aphria Inc.

Bullboard Posts

Comment by 40Baggson Dec 23, 2018 6:33pm

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Post# 29152547

RE:RE:Rough Math

All-in cost last quarter was $1.83, this will most likely be under $1.50 and Vic predicted a $4/gram price point squeeze by end of 2019, then $2.50 per gram profit is likely. EPS ~ $2.55. This excludes the 30-50K kilos from Colombia, another 0.3 to 0.5 EPS. We are also excluding the oil extraction centre of excellence and profit from disruptables. $2B+ annual rev's in 2020.

Vinny57 wrote: MJ, your numbers look about right and I too would use a modest $2 per gram. Your last paragraph about the quarters is bang on as well. This is what I have been saying for quite some time now..................As far as others on this board who constantly complain about other people's postings...............For Chr1sts sake, hit the IGNORE button! Do not engage with them. You will be so much happier you did.

MJ MadeMeRich wrote:
When I need to reassure myself APHA is a good buy I do the math.

APHA should be producing 255 000Kg in 2019
APHA has the lowest cost to produce a gram, the numbers add up but I'll use a $2 Profit per Gram

255 000kg x $2000 Profit Margin per Kg ($2 per gram profit x1000g= $2000 per Kg)
That equals $510, 000, 000 or half a Billion.

Divide by Outstanding shares (250Million)
$2.04 EPS divide by 4 Quarters equals 0.51 EPS per Quarter.

This is assuming APHA can sell all of it's weed (255 00Kg) for a moderate $2 Profit per gram.
I believe that is very possible... I believe they will also increase production. I believe they can squeeze more profit per gram.... maybe $3-$4 depending on what product they're selling.

So ask yourself, a company that can easily make $2.04 EPS by the end of 2019, what is it really worth? Only 6.50CAD? I don't think so.

Lets give APHA a low P/E ratio of 10
2.04x10= $20.40CAD

Anything below $10 is a Strong Buy, unbelieveable oppurtunity.
Anything below $20 is a Buy, great potential.
Anything below $30-21 is a Buy to Hold.
If APHA keep expanding and growing than sure, $30 might be a great buy but now we're looking too much into the future.

$20 Target Price is very possible. Just wait until the Quarters start to slowly come out with some good numbers. More good news will evantually come out, and the general market will be healthier than it is now.