RE:RE:Napkin MathFrom my understanding, Linton and other insiders of Canopy sold a large amount of shares when it was trading in the $60's, sometime in September. Hopefully we followed suit.
thorgb1 wrote: 40Baggs wrote: If APHA inventory was 8,400 KGs as Aug 31, 2018 and their monthly production run was 2,500kgs + 500 (Broken Coast), less space used for Mother plants, we can assume ~8,000 KGs produced.
APHA sold 1778 KG's @ ~7.47/g to patients, which was a 35% increase in KG's sold. Assume patient base increased by ~25-30% this quarter, so 2300KGs sold @ $7.47 = 17.1M.
We don't actually know the sale price to provinces in the first months from legalizaton, but we can assume it's atleast $1 for taxes covered by the LP's, so let's say $6, with the massive supply shortage as the emblem agreement for wholesale contracts of 25,000 KG's begins May 2019.
So there's now 6,100 KG's remaining for rec sales, @$6/gram, is ~36M from Rec. Plus 17M from Medical, is 53M total. That assumes a $6/gram price for rec, all inventory sold and no sales from the harvested plants Sep-Nov.
$53M @ 60% margins = ~32M gross profit + fv adjustments of biological assets = ~$37M.
Operating expenses were 24M last qtr, so lets add 5M to this qtr, so 30M total op expenses.
Non operating items were $35M last qtr, so lets assume $60M with the sale of LHS that happened subsequent to the last quarter.
That results in $67M income before taxes, or roughly $55M after taxes. That would be an EPS of 0.22, in additional to last qtr's .09, or an EPS of 0.31.
Lots of assumptions, but with the short supply, the inventory has certainly been cleaned out.
A wild card for these financials in January......
How many shares of CGC did we receive for our initial investment in Hiku when Linton grossly overpaid for 6 useless store leases and the Tokyo Smoke brand for our investment........hard to believe we would not have been liquidating those when Canopy fan up huge.