RE:year end rally is interesting thoughts, though from a sales person:
The Financial Post reports in its Saturday, Dec. 29, edition that Laurentian Bank of Canada chief economist Sebastien Lavoie says both the United States and Canadian markets should be attractive to investors, because the barriers that have slowed down the S&P/TSX index are lifted in 2019. The Post's Victor Ferriera writes that Mr. Lavoie expects that by mid-year the U.S. and China will have ended their trade spat, the USMCA trade deal will be ratified and the energy industry will have recovered. Mr. Lavoie says production cuts from the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries as well as the provincial curtailment in Alberta and an expected increase in rail capacity should lead to the industry's revival in 2019. Mr. Lavoie, however, warns that there is "no chance" of the TSX hitting his target without those catalysts. and another bullish view - though both are cautious The last time OPEC announced a major cooperation agreement with Russia, oil prices rallied from the $40s up past $70/bbl once it became apparent that the group was sticking to its agreement. I expect similar results this time. Jointly, OPEC and Russia produce more than 50% of the world’s oil. They have significant pricing power if they manage to maintain discipline. I expect they will do so given the positive results from the previous production cuts, and therefore I expect the price of oil to recover back above $60/bbl in a few short months.
I would note in conclusion that there was another draw on U.S. crude inventories this week, the third straight decline. Inventories of petroleum and finished products are now 17.5% lower than they were a year ago. Despite this, U.S. crude oil prices are more than 20% lower than they were a year ago. This is setting up the sort of disconnect I saw in the natural gas markets a few months ago. This disconnect led to a >60% rally in natural gas prices.
But there’s still the Trump wildcard. As long as he is committed to lower oil prices, he will continue to cajole and coerce Saudi Arabia for more oil production. I expect he will have less success with this approach in 2019.