RE:RE:NumbersI like your numbers joh, albeit I see a bit longer time line but spitballing is spitballing, actual numbers will give a much clearer picture by end of 2nd quarter.
If the final 60,000ft2 are approved and under crop by mid year, with the marketplace fully operational and the FIRE supply network operating like a well oiled machine in all areas of the country, plus KKE and domestic oils on the shelf there is no reason the SP shouldn't realize double digits in the first half of 2020.
I think they will do better than the 50% OH by year's end based on current assets and operations, new and/or additional expenditures would change efficiencies in the short term. With the ultra facility product on the shelf in the first half of '20 and we see SP north of $10 for sure....the ultra product can not hit the shelves quick enough for me. But anyway you slice it FIRE is the best overall story in the sector, JMHO....Opt
johnale wrote: One of my prev posts..... my numbers.
Ya for sure - to back up your numbers OptGreen -
fire gets 6-7/gram medical weed sales - and 5.5 - 7/gram selling to provinces.
I believe only 1 strain is sub-$6/gram. So I think we can say our average selling price is probably around 6.5/gram and if you want to be conservative - $6.25/gram.
By mid year we will be at full production 50k kg - and somewhere towards end of 2019 I expect another 10k kg from the ultra facility.
With KKE and Ultra our average selling price should go up.... but lets stay conservative and say 6.25/gram.
By mid year - 50k kg at 6.25/gram = $312.5 mil in annual sales. (by June/July)
With oils - the returns are even greater - but they are a byproduct of our 7acres production. Could easily add 50-70 mil in additional revenue. (conservatively on an annualized basis)
By years end with 10k kg of Ultra facility - (say $7/gram) - additional 70 mil annualized revenue.
SO just purely domestic production for this year we should be ramping up to a 450mil rev run rate.
Thats low ball /gram revenue, with no credit to any international expansion, Goderich facility, or edibles... which I am told they most definitely have a plan for.
at 50% overhead at full prodcution - 225mil net/400mil shares (fully diluted) *20PE = $11.25/share.