RE:RE:Cash Flow at $53 WTIyour revenue looks light for a realized price of $61 CDN/B and a level of capex sufficient to keep production flat (which should be possible at $55 million)
assuming production of:
8000 BO/D
24,000 MCF gas
1000 BNGL/D
and pricing of:
$61 CDN (1.34 fx)
$1.9 (last 8 quarters their realized price has averaged $2.23) CDN
$30 CDN
$178,120,000
$16,644,000
$10,950,000
$$205,714,000
also, if they cut the number of service rigs back from 4 to 2, that opex number will come back closer to $12 than $14
I don't think the us shale plays can be developed for any meaningful amount of time at less than $70 usd, so $53 WTI is an unrealistically conservative number (longer term).
Plenty of money to increase the the capital return program to $20mm and pay down the debt by a comparable amount (using the above numbers).