Fundamental or Technical To me, both fundamental changes (weather, inventory, etc) and technicals are equally important.
The fundamentals seem to have more weight when determining the daily direction of the move, but technicals seem to have more weight when determining how far the move goes intra day.
Just my opinion though.
Another opinion I have is, if NATGAS breaks $3.076 with some conviction it should move to $3.17 in the short term.
After $3.17 there will likel be resistance at $3.25 (50% Fib retrace from $3.59 to $2.90) and then $3.30 (61.8% Fib retrace).
There's quite a bit of near term support at $2.95, then $2.93, then $2.90.
The long term support that I think is very notable is the upward trendline of support from March 4th 2016 to July 19th 2018. It acted as support twice in September 2018 and it was support last week at $2.90.
Break this trendline and my guess is we will quickly see $2.77.