Seven Aces Limited - Ordinary Shares ACEXF

Q3 Preview: 20%+ Revenue Growth and Another 1M+ in EPS…

[TallerCraig]

That time of year again, time for a quick preview of what to expect out of Q3 which will be out before month end. Q3 brought continued progress with an additional $9M USD in acquisitions to acquire an additional 20 contracts that will be accretive to both Revenue and EBITDA thanks to additional access to capital of $25M.
 
All these incremental postives and the stock is down a tick. Who knows why, but I guess that is the opportunity in the stock. Lets Dig into the Q3 Numbers;
 

Revenue

Target 17.0 -17.5M – With the two acquisitions closed towards the end of November don’t expect any significant contribution in revenue from the twenty additional contracts that were acquired. With Q1 being so seasonally strong around tax refund season you should get another steady state Q driven by continued US job growth and consumer confidence.
 
Just an quick antidote, Steve Leisman was on CNBC talking about heading down to Atlanta for an economic conference the other week and stated that he had to stay in an Air BnB because he couldn’t even get a hotel room. With Atalanta being Quantum’s major hub that kind of foot traffic through the city has to be BULLISH!!!
 
 
Profitability

Target 0.015 – 0.020/share – Look for amortization costs to continue to run about $2.5M and a slight tick up in Finance costs to 1.85M as you have one last fed rate rise this Q and a slightly higher debt level post the dual November acquisitions. With regards to General & Admin expenses look for it to maintain in the 8 -10% range especially when you take out the one time acquisition costs.
 
With the stock down a tick you will even get a further $100k Gain with the reduction in FV in Derivative liability. Pay your NCI portion to Anil and you are left with over $1M USD for shareholders, pretty darn good looking Q.
 
Running a 40-42% EBITDA margin is just massive and why the stocks trades at such a discounted multiple given that fact I don’t know why, but I digress. Look for 4.25 – 4.50M USD EBITDA attributable to QIC shareholders.
 

Valuation

Sticking to my estimates here from prior posts for Fiscal 19 of revenue of $80M ($104 CAD) and $20M ($26M CAD) in EBITDA and using a net debt figure attributable to QIC.V shareholders of $45M USD.
 
Putting a peer group multiple on that of 8-10x EV/EBITDA gets me to a stock price of 1.75 – 2.35/share or 2.05/share at the midpoint which equates to 115% upside just to get to a peer group multiple!!!
 
 
Near Term Catalysts
 
1) Cantech Conference – They will be attending the Cantech conference in Toronto at the end of January and will most likely have updated numbers to share with investors. If you look at the last time they presented their story and the Stablieview Asset Management conference in October the stock popped nicely.

2) SuperBowl In Atlanta – The superbowl is not a one day event, the whole media circus starts on the Monday and runs the entire week, the amount of people and money that it will bring into the city is massive and this plays directly into Quantum’s gaming footprint.

3) Loonie Weakness – This time last year the USD was trading for 1.24CAD and since it has depreciated over 6% to today running north of 1.32CAD. This is a 100% US business so in CAD dollars the business has become more valuable to Canadian shareholders.

4) Tax Refunds Not Affected by Government Shutdown – Seeing how this is such a tailwind for their business in Q1 it was critical that it was announced that tax refund season was going to proceed as normal

5) Jobs Jobs Jobs – Georgia labour market staying red hot adding over 100,000 jobs in the last 12 months with wage inflation on top of that should lead to continue strong discretionary spend.
 
 
This name is a cashflow machine, I love this story.
 
 
LONG