RE:RE:RE:Altria deal comments!We will be very fortunate if we get a 10-20% offer @$13, similar to what Canopy got on STZ's first equity buy in Oct 2017 ($13 for 10%). A 40% premium on todays closing price is reasonable and is what CRON received, but for a much larger chunk on a much smaller LT capacity.
Haywood's report was essentially an offer-sheet at that value, lowering the risk for a large investor to buy into this exploding nascent market and company that has the capacity, contracts and distribution to be a globally dominant force. It's definitely worth noting that APHA has substantially increased its institutional investor base (~8% + 8% float).
asoprano wrote: thorgb1 wrote: castle123 wrote: I keep laughing at these posts that claim Vic blew the Altria deal! Were you at the table? NO. You wanted a quick deal, move APH to $25 sell and run.
I wonder what the same bloggers will be saying in 2-3 years when APHA is a global glomerate trading at $50-$60 a share.
i know what you will be saying! “ sure glad Vic didn’t sell out to Altria!”
Have a nice day!
Altria was a big, big mistake by Vic any way you slice it. It would be a much easier run for APHA to 50 bucks with a couple of billion $$ war chest in the bank and never having to worry about financing again. A big investment would have been good for short term gains, and provided long term stability. And, most don’t know, there was apparently another household name in the shadows ready to piggy back on the Altria deal and move in for a major JV that would have rocked the whole industry. That deal gets done, the shorts never show up and this is probably never under $20 again. Instead, lots of people lost a lot of money and had terrible holidays. It was a critical error.
Thanks thorgb1. It amazes me how many times it has to be pointed out that Vic made a colossal blunder that cost all of us longs. You're absolutely right it made for a very solemn mood for the holidays. Although I believe as I have iterated in other posts that I don't want to believe Vic is a criminal, however I do believe he was very negligent in dropping the ball on this deal thus crucifying all the true longs. I can only hope that ProfC and all other legitimately informative contributors continue to post.
It’s hard to not believe at this point that a whale will be making a strong bid soon, APHA is far too attractive to pass up at its current valuation. APHA needs the cash infusion to continue to grow and continue M&A. If they even contemplate going it alone, there will be a mass exodus of investors. I’ve witnessed up and coming businesses in the past refuting deals whether they were some form of partnership deal or takeover bid – all of those up and comers either faded away or took years to recover their valuations going it alone.
I’m still long and have faith that the management turn around will be fruitful for all of us longs.
JMHO.