Friday night blues for short sellers,.... Bleed Dhorties, Bleed.
Meanwhile, as we suggested Friday morning, betting against Home Capital Group is proving to be a challenge, despite the mid-December news that Berkshire Hathaway (BRK*US) had sold a substantial position in the stock. Short-sellers were emboldened by the Berkshire news and bet it would signal a lack of confidence in HCG's prospects. The HCG short position rose by 0.7% as of December 31st. That put the short position in HCG at 6.78% of the float, making it one of the 25 most shorted TSX stocks. However, there is another perspective to the Berkshire move. As Warren Buffett notes in a December 19th press release, after HCG paid back Berkshire's line of credit and HCG shareholders turned down an additional Berkshire equity investment in September 2017, Berkshire's investment in HCG was too small for the insurance giant to justify continued involvement. Large institutional investors that make direct investments often prefer to take big stakes in companies to justify ongoing monitoring costs.
Home Capital Group insiders keep buying despite the gloomy talk
Continued insider buying represents a challenge to short-sellers as it signals confidence in the firm's future prospects. Another obstacle for the shorts is the Bank of Canada putting interest rate hikes on hold. Monetary policy, once a tailwind for the shorts, has now stopped blowing in their favour. Canadian housing markets are vulnerable to rising rates, but with Canada bond yields falling, interest rates may yet turn into a headwind for short-sellers. That said, mortgage finance companies must still contend with tighter lending rules and slowing housing demand. As of Q3, at any rate, HCG has been undeterred by these factors. The firm managed diluted EPS of $0.41, up from $0.37 in Q3 2017 with a net interest margin of 2.03%, up from 1.85% in the comparable period. We will be keeping an eye on the short-insider tug-of-war at HCG. Since our last report on August 27th, insiders are winning, with the stock up 15.1% (as of Thursday).
While short-selling reports often get a lot of attention due to their allegations and conclusions. Sometimes they are right, but other times they flop. While not infallible by any stretch, insider behaviour can often help investors put short-selling situations in context. Generally, it is a bullish sign for a stock to see shorts reducing their positions while insiders are buying.
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https://www.canadianinsider.com/blog/friday-night-blues-short-sellers-battling-bonterra-home-capital-and-corus-ent-insiders