RE:I anticipate an offer at $2.40 for Trican by May 31I'd like to know your thoughts on why you think Trican couldn't see another Christmas? From what I understand they lost 13 million last quarter Q3, had 22 million in cash before the Keane sale and have also extended their revolving credit to 270 million.
Lets say 13 million loss per quarter for the next year as well as q4 would bring the total loss to 65 million to the end of 2019.
With the 22 million, plus the sale of Keane and revolving credit of 270 million I really don't see why people think that Trican couldn't survive when STEP and Calfrac have way heavier debt loads.
This is just my opinion but I see Trican weathering a bad climate well into 2020 before the doors would close. They might have to take on some more debt which isn't great but would easily get them through but like to hear your thoughts
igstar wrote: Based on what i see in the market, numerous other deals coming into the market, the failure of Precision to get a deal done, doubtful Trican sees another Christmas.
- too many companies need a billion in revenue
- taking a company with no debt, a huge plus
- Trican has cleaned up everything, making it simple and straight forward
- likely a stock deal, but if its private equity - and they are getting active - cash
The CEO buying some stock, and will likely buy more - can see the writing on the wall, so he is buying more.
Share buybacks have really cleaned up the residual from Canyon takeover.
However - I expect the company to reject any deal - especially at that price.
But these are the comments i have got from people i know working in the field. (they are buyers too). We shall see how it plays out.