RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:About consumables..Hi Baruch, welcome back and Happy New Year. You are the EtO advocate on this Board.
On your questions, there are numerous ways to find your answers: listen to what RR/GK says on AGMs and conference calls, read sell-side analyst's initiation notes, buy one of these industry reports online, talk to people in the industry, etc.
To make things easy, just go to the Fortive website and analyze the Powerpoint presentation they have for the JNJ's ASP deal.
https://investors.fortive.com/sites/fortive.investorhq.businesswire.com/files/event/additional/ASP_Final_Presentation.pdf
JNJ claims they have 21k terminal sterilizers installed worldwide, with almost half of their revenue coming from the US. Obviously some of these machines might be inactive, but they probably have at least 9,000-10,000 active installed base in the US. We know Steris is has 4-5k installed base in the US as well, so 15k is a good number. Since these two don't make EtO systems, the 15k is all H2O2 systems. The slides also said these systems have a 8-10yrs life span, so our 10yrs assumption is already stretching it. You can also ballpark the number of cycles/day as well as Fortive breaks down JNJ's numbers between capital sales vs. consumables...and the 4/d checks out as well.
Contrary to your statements, the industry people I talked to said there were no material EtO systems sold in the US for over a decade. Only 1/4 to 1/5 of US hospitals have access to an EtO system. Similar thing in Canada as well like there is no EtO anywhere in Alberta, for example. EtO sales only perked up slightly recently as EtO helped stopped the ERCP outbreak in 2015, and the newer EtO systems have bags and cartridges, etc. But given we now have the only FDA approval for this ERCP indication, I expect things to reverse course again for EtO.
For all the people on the blog:
We have a new IR lady in Montreal who will be taking care of our shareholder base (while the NY IR firm continue to deal with PRs and regulatory releases). I was told to leave these educational posts to them so they can get a unified message out to everyone. So please direct all your inquires to: ir@tso3.com
I will continue to post pertinent tidbits and analysis, but I will leave this type of educational blogs to our IR. Hope you all understand. Have a good weekend everyone.