Investor Relations CallThanks BananaMan!
I'm quite long here on Valens. I've been doing my own math, but decided to just go ahead and call Investor Relations myself.
Nothing new but several consolidated points other people have mentioned:
1) The organigram agreement is on the FAR EAST coast and they are choosing to bypass all of the other extractors and ship to the FAR WEST coast because of the Valens expertise. Medipharm Labs is right there. So this is a big vote of confidence. If you re-read the OGN earning report from yesterday they have $40 million in extractable product sitting around an that is getting bigger.
2) Their capacity at the end of this month is 150,000kg annually. Right now they have contracts in place for about 80,000-100,000kg. So they are getting close to that capacity and these are multi year deals 2-4 years generally.
3) Their revenue is $1.10-2.50 per gram depending on size of the deal, nature of extraction, etc.
4) Stated margin is 50%.
5) Their projections are for 5 day 8 hour work weeks. There is room to throttle higher capacity if they get the right high margin contracts in place.
6) Lots of cash on hand, like $40 million, no need to dilute.
Soooooo.....Clearly very undervalued here.
One of the risks I want to point out is that these larger players could do this work themselves. And they do. They were so focused on cultivation that extraction is just now coming to the forefront. So its possible that they are building out their own infrastructure and 2-4 years from now will realize they don't need Valens. But Valens helps ramp up and down capacity very quickly and has technology in place and IP that others may not have.
So if you look at 80,000kg run rate coming out of Q1 at say conservative $1.25 / gram (I think actually it will be more for certain complex products). Thats $100 million annual run rate revenue.
At 50% margin minus some SG&A and what not thats like $40 million EBITDA. 100 mil fully diluted shares or so, thats $0.40 earnings annually...easily a $4 stock.
Assume they ramp up to 125,000 kg then it becomes about $0.70 / share and its a $7-10 stock.
Then of course they can go to Europe, Australia, get bought out, have their own grow operation come online, sell IP, etc.
Very excited to see earnings in early March.