RE:Looking more closely at the NASH Potential - 6I wonder why in Europe you wouldnt just go straight into pursuing the general NASH population (maybe alongside the HIV NASH ) population. Other than the greater risks, costs and timeline. In fact if the main trigger in these scenario's is a takeover by large pharma then surely this option is automatically on the table with the appropriate uncertainties/discounts. You're not going to sell the rights to this without considering the general NASH value, right?
SPCEO1 wrote: This is the last one of this series. There are likely other permutations that someone more skilled at the clinical and regualtory sides of these issues could put forward.In this one we look at the possibility of TH seeking to get approval for Egrifta in the general NASH market rather than being constrained by the HIV NASH sub-segment of the larger NASH market:
The absolutely, indescribably huge payoff would be if TH can do all of the things mentioned in the scenarios above and also pursue the general NASH market, rather than just the HIV sub-segment of that market. As the Liver Therapy Forum author has stated, there is no reason to believe Egrifta would not also work in all patients with NASH rather than just HIV patients with NASH. Obviously, if TH could possibly be seen to be able to gain approval in the US and European general NASH market, the stock price would go crazy. That is not likely to become clear in the next few months, but who knows. Again, there is no point in trying to put probabilities of success on this at this time as it is too early and there are a number of questions to be answered before we can think more seriously about it. Again, the company would be subject to a takeover offer under this scenario because of the huge size of the opportunity. In fact, there would likely be a bidding war over it if the results were good enough and raised the prospect of the company having a very competitive product for the general NASH market. We shareholders would get a nice immediate return if that happened but would likely give up a gigantic return over the longer term for the privelege of the immediate return. That is why I don't want the company to be taken over by big pharma - it would just be stupid of TH shareholders to sell out.