RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Sales Revenue (4147 TMB) January 2019SPCEO1 wrote: PoorOpinion wrote: SPCEO1 wrote: palinc2000 wrote: SPCEO1 wrote: The Bloomberg data is the best source of data now and it is showing improvement, with last week's number being the highest yet by a nice margin. The Taimed sales number is impacted by inventory changes at TH.
Dwizell wrote: Garp1 wrote:
38,939
This is very bad as we don’t have the J code excuses for this 4 th near flat month in a row ...
Do you know for a fact that inventories held at TH have decreased ?
Why would they decrease inventories when sales are supposedly increasing?
No, but it has to be the case since Trogarzo sales are rising at the TH level (according to Bloomberg, which has its problems but is generally accurate). Since TH can't sell what it does not have and its sales of Trogarzo are rising, that means they have to be working down invetories of Trogarzo if Taimed's Trogarzo sales to TH are flattish.
The thing is if sales were improving in a substantial way then you would expect BOTH numbers to increase. Especially given that early in the process thera said they didnt actually hold much stock and the increases in taimed sales in the few months were they increased (i think the best month was 510000) were quite limited. There really isnt a great deal of spare inventory in the system. As others have said there is a limited life to this explanation and it seems we've come to the end of it.
SPCEO any chance you could give us the last weeks actual bloomberg sales. Is it vials sold? The actual number of vials? Or maybe 4 week moving average?
It seems many here are getting hung up on the Taimed sales and that is just creating unnecessary confusion. You can ignore Taimed sales for now as it only represents the amount that Taimed sells to TH and what matters to us is the amount TH sells to its distributor. Those numbers will be comparable at some point in the future but for the moment, the Taimed sales to TH are just not giving you an accurate picture of Trogarzo sales. So, if you are all twisted up by those Taimed sales numbers, you have my permission to just stop fussing aboutthem and ignore the for now.
TH has said the total quantity of vials sold as reported by Bloomberg is the best approximation of actual sales and it continues to grow. If you use the last data point on Bloomberg, it suggests 333 patients (using 8.5 doses per patient per month - some are getting the heavier loading dose each month and some months are longer than the 4 week cycle I am assuming). That 333 likely overstates reality since it is using the latest data point which was the best ever by a nice amount. But if sales keep growing as they have recently, it will not be very long at all long before that number is too low an estimate of the numebr of patients.
Also, we probably should assume that Bloomberg has not captured every prescription written for Trogarzo. So, 333 might be very close to the current number of patients taking that into consideration.
So if I understand your numbers correctly. Based on this standout week the monthly sales rate is about 2800 vials. Sale price of each vial is in the 400USD range (????). That's around 1.1mil USD/month. Thera are paying 60% of the sales price to taimed so that would be $640000 USD. That equals about 20mil TWD. Taimed sold 38 mil TWD last month. If those numbers are right then it would suggest that there really isnt a great disconnect between Taimed sales and Thera sales, and that inventory adjustments would be a reasonable explanation?
So are my number right? It would suggest that back in Oct there was quite asubstantial over-purchase (51000) and the last 3 months could be flat while actual sales were increasing. That right? Probably more than I was assuming.