What is your target SP? FSD will be HUGEBuy low Sell high, easy? Holding is the hardest part. Haters will always hate.
Lock your eyes on the prize. With Auxly, FSD production 400,000kg have to be divided to 200,000 kg. Without Auxly all production could be for FSD. I don't think FSD should give out too much production. Cultivation can be divided to: Real estate construction, Growing equipments and tech, maintenance (master grow team). They can outsource all 3 aspect of cultivation to different companies. This will create competition and less of dependency to one partner.
If an LP produce 100,000kg/year or 100,000,000 grams/year how much is their Value?
Among professional grower, average direct cost per gram is $1 or less. (There are papers on Researchgate with Cost breakdown if people want to read it).
Every gram has $8-10 market value B2C and roughly $4-6/gram in B2B.
B2B can also a split sales revenue after add value being added. This allow business partner to minimize the input cost as the other partner benefit from higher profit margin.
B2B business can have 20-50% profit margin annually depending on their Operational Cost or overhead expenses. Usually B2B don't have as much expenses compare to B2C structure. B2C business model can have 10-20% of profit margin.
Normally, you want to breakeven (B/E) 5-10 years. Best guestimation can use this as multiplier depends on your confidence. I definitely want 5 years due to high competition in the future.
Pessimistic: 100,000,000 g/year x $4/gram x 5 years = $2 Billion
Optimistic: 100,000,000 g/year x $8/gram x 5 years = $4 Billion
FSD initial goal with XLY was 200,000,000 g/year
Pessimistic: $4 Billion
Optimistic: $8 Billion
FSD goal without XLY was 400,000,000 g/year
Pessimistic: $8 Billion
Optimistic: $16 Billion
I would translate this to target SP = target market cap / # of outstanding share.
Every 100,000kg production
Pessimistic target SP= $2B/ 1,373,599,691 = $1.456
Optimistic target SP= $4B/ 1,373,599,691 = $2.912
FSD initial production share with XLY was 200,000,000 g/year
Pessimistic target SP= $4B/ 1,373,599,691 = $2.912
Optimistic target SP= $8B/ 1,373,599,691 = $5.824
FSD goal without XLY was 400,000,000 g/year
Pessimistic target SP= $8B/ 1,373,599,691 = $5.824
Optimistic target SP= $16B/ 1,373,599,691 = $11.648
Hiring is always easy but Firing is difficult. If your employee or business partner is always late. You should fire them for not taking the business/ work seriously. Anybody who want to share their calculation, I'm tired reading whining.