RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Trogarzo sales rose 53.6% in Jan over DecWhile no approved drugs exist for NASH there are practice guidelines in both America and Europe formulated by various medical bodies. We discussed pioglitzone and vitamen e before. You can see from these documents the thinking on both. The American doc is easier to interpret because they have guidance statements at the end of ecah section.
https://www.aasld.org/sites/default/files/NAFLD%20Guidance%202018.pdf https://www.easl.eu/medias/cpg/NAFLD-non-alcoholic-fatty-liver-disease/English-report.pdf I wonder whether you need to make some headway with both these docs to get accepted more widely by clinicians. It would seem unlikely that a study in a limited HIV+ population would lead to strong recommendations in the general population. I could see some HIV doctors becoming aware of the study. I'm back to wondering how much it could impact the general population.
SPCEO1 wrote: The reason Trogarzo has disappointed our patient number expectations is due to flattening growths tarting in September and ending in December. Had the growth stayed on the early pace, the number of patients would be close to what was expected. Now, clearly something changed in January to produce that jump and the J code is likely most of the reason for that. I can't imagine we will see 53% growth month over month in February. In fact, I have to think we will be lucky to see much growth at all given February is 4 days shorter than January (13% fewer days) and the very strong spike in January. But we should hope to see the pace pick up again in March and beyond.
I suspect we are likely at about 350 patients right now. To get to 500 by the end of April, they would need to add on average 50 patients a month. That is doable but growth would need to pick up a notch further to get there, so I think the chances are the run rate of Trogarzo sales will not exceed those of Egrifta by the end of April. It will likely take until June to achieve that, which is not really that big of a deal.
What intrigues me, however, is the possibility of unexpected Egrifta sales from lipo patients with NASH and off label for wealthy US folks with NASH assumingthe NASH results are good and get some attention. It could prove meaningful and those doctors comments I mentioned yesterday suggest it is possible.
palinc2000 wrote: Growth is growth regardless of the base!
However one or two months of growth is not the goal at this stage.We need continued growth month after month , quarter after quarter and year after year...