And doing more DD............I find...........That the 4thQ 2018 grade is a real downer. Comped to the FS and the grades from
2017 and 1st 3 Q of 2018 it's a real bummer.
So the Cash Flow in 4th Q got hurt, as did production.
IMO the reconciliation of production grades to the FS geo model and reserve report, which was due in 1Q 2019, but now due in 2Q 2019, is not going to be pretty.
Meaning.............the OCF is going to be hurt going forward, and ditto for the remaining mine life absent some great discovery at or near mine.
In fact, the company has told you this for 2019 but just not in bold letters highlited like I will now do for you:
IF you have an increase in production nameplate capacity from 750t/day to 1,100t/day, which is about 50% increase, but you only see a 10-15% increase in forecasted OZ production, you certainly want to look WHY?
9 months 2017 was 14.5g/tonne.
9months 2018 was 14.4g/tonne.
4Q 2018 was 25,845 at 10.8g/tonne.
M&I for the last reserve report year end 2016 was 738K oz at 17.1g/tonne
and Inferred at 347K at 16.1 g/tonne for the 55 Zone..........
and Bagassi South QV1 is Indicated 188koz at 16.6g/tonne
and Inferred at 13.0 g/tonne.
So, there was a large drop in 4Q production and grade. At thatrun rate of about 100K oz/yr plus the increased capacity of the mill, would get you to about 145K oz in 2019.