Chasers BewarePKG Q4 revenues are due out next week which will be telling. If Q4 revs are under $1 M (again) and 80% of rev's are Amazon, that means < $200K in Qtly non-amazon sales after 18 months of operations in a tier-1 city like Vancouver. If that happens imo this stock falls to mid-to-low 20's again and awaits better Q1 numbers at end of May.
If you own stock understand there is risk here. PKG is up 50% recently for no apparent reason and Q4 results are coming soon which may be sobering.
An Amazon deal in a major market is what they really need to propel revenue growth and keep momentum, especially whenever they open in the GTA. Without that, expect GTA launch to be a slow-growth scenario with greater risk.
If someone else wins the March 1 deal with the Ontario gov't for same day province wide weed delivery, PKG will have an uphill battle to gain market share in that new sector.
We'll find out next week exactly what current revenues are and who gets the Ontario gov't weed deal. Everett is still getting organized, Calgary & Saskatoon have no Amazon contract and therefore miniscule sales imo. Just saying a market cap of $25 M is hard to justify with Q3 non-Amazon sales at $165K and Q4 est. non-Amazon sales $200K.
Company still has solid potential over a 1-2 year period if a few key things go their way, but keep a careful eye on non-Amazon revenues and any new Amazon contracts. They're the key to growth.
It takes time to build operations, consumer awareness and sales. It also takes time to change consumer behavior - literally years. They're doing things right but the share price is way ahead of operations and sales.
Besides all this, I don't see legs on this market. It has not recovered and rallies are short lived. There's more market pain ahead imo so play safe, take profits and don't chase.
Merc