Crius Energy Trust Tr Unit CRIUF

RE:when you see a bid of 8.84 on an offer of 8.80

[DMR001]

Folks, I have not been posting much these days but felt compelled to make a comment on the bid above the offer matter. For the purposes of this discussion, I am treating trust units like common shares. Usually when there is an offer on the table the share price rises quite close to the offer price but never reaches it. This, IMO, is because an offer is never a guarantee because takeover deals do occasionally fall apart. Hence, there is always a difference between the market price and the offer because of the risk of the deal not closing.  In this case, there is a “dividend” that has already been declared. So, the value of a trust unit if the deal closes is 8.80 plus the 0.209 dividend, so that is 9.009 in all. So, right now, a bid in excess of that amount would be a surprise. I understand that tax treatment plays into this but I am keeping it simple. If we see a bid in excess of $9.009 then that would be reason to suspect something more is afoot.
 

Conclusion: An offer of 8.84 (it closed at 8.94 yesterday) is not sufficient evidence IMO to support the notion that another offer is pending.
  

Other opinions?