RE:RE:RE:RE:Good numbersCheck the numbers please, from what I see on the presenteation, expecting 1.25bln @ 50WTI, and sensitivity shows about 250ml for each extra 10WTI, so that would mean 1.75bln total cash flow (500ml free cash flow) @ WTI 70. Unless I missed something.
I think the NCIB is good for a year from approval but I think it was approved only recently (last fall?)
They bought back just over 3ml shares in Q4, so if they can go up to 10%, that woud leave A LOT of room - all depends on share price, but I'm guessing with ROIC at what, 19% (or was it 12?), either way, it's cheaper to buy back shares at these prices than to pay down debt, assuming they have room on coventants..
I hope they don't sell the plant, I'd prefer if they sub it out, they'll need the processing capacity once they ramp up - by 2022 they might need it all ... but they did say they're gonna try to monetize the mid-stream assets, so if they mean sale, then, I guess they figure they won't need it - like you said, they'll know best..
on land I'm sure you're right, lots of expiries coming up, at least according to Peyto commentary - they're also planning to buy up some sections, sounds like ... I'm not sure how much of the 22 years' worth of reserves is contiguous, but I'm guessing they'll be good for a while, but sure, get them while they're cheap ... they could take out all of PONY for what they'll generate in free cash flow next year, that' would solve the land problem, if there is one.. lot of the PONY land is dry, but down the road that might come in handy and it's cheap now for sure
my 2c