I have spent the AM analyzing future SP and guess whatMY old price was set at $24 by Jan 2021 for the reasons I have previously described. I do not agree that one can not make a fair estimate of future prices but one needs to know what the peers are doing, where interest rates are heading, the overall market sentiment and the likely behavior of the company being analysed. No one can forsee catastrphic events but overall I assume a few things in my analysis: 1. The numbe rof sahres will rise to about 280 million - some writing on this board have said 223 others 270 but at the end of the quarter the number was already 275 million. Book value was about 21. Peers are trading now at 1.41 to 1.67 with a few higher and lower and I assume looking at the reports and listening to an articulate CEO that the company will sell assets and will earn what they suggest and that confidence will return in the company. That moves my target up to between 29.61 and 35.07 by 2021 and it is likely that the dividend will be reset higher by then as well given free cash flow.
So fo rthos eof you convinced there will be a techical short term pull back - be careful You should at the very least hold a core position and trade with partial positions only.
At this low price you will see numerous upward revisions I think after the next ER and after the first asset sale announcement. Analysts have the luxury of just changing their numbers after the ER... but the smart investor is in long before that.
I dio believe that soime shorts will try to driv ethe stock down but if it does dip I would definitely be a long time buyer. GL