RE:Extrapolation for “The Gingerbread ManHere is a back-of-the-napkin potential valuation I've applied to AGRA going forward. It's kind of primitive, but I'm just looking for a ballpark estimation of expectations.
I take a sample of the current largest cannabis producers as far as anticipated production is concerned.
Motley Fool did all the heavy lifting for me in this article:
https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/09/23/predicting-the-10-largest-marijuana-producers-in-c.aspx
Assuming that AGRA's anticipated production will be 250,000 kg, we can see where that compares within this top 10 list.
You have Tilray with 200-225,000 kg and Aphria with 255,000 kg. Both have begun producing and bringing in revenues, so I have to estimate the timeline of when AGRA will be at an equivalent point that these companies are at currently. My target there is Q4 2020, though phase 1 of 250k sq ft will be completed this summer so production begins for AGRA later in 2019.
So next I gather the current market caps of the top 10 cannabis companies (in particular Tilray and Aphria since they are the comps with AGRA's future capacity). The Marijuana Index provides that data for most of the companies in the previous article.
https://marijuanaindex.com/stock-quotes/canadian-marijuana-index/
Aphria's market cap is $2.5 billion, though they've been somewhat throttled by the insider self-dealing story. Tilray is $7.5 billion, though the consensus is that Tilray has been IPO-hyped and is a bit out over its skis at the current price though they have some large deals under their belt as well.
For argument's sake let's split the two comps and approximate a $5 billion target for AGRA. Divide $5 billion by 371,000,000 OS and you get $13.5 per share (approx $10/share PUFXF).
Obviously there are a bunch of other factors to consider that can and will occur between now and the end of 2020 that will affect the revenues, share price and market cap. But this at least gives us a ballpark to work with. Heck, cut it in half and it is still an incredible ROI for 18 months.