RE:Reaction to Line 3 delay
Unfortunately, I don't share your enthusiasm Joseph. Line 3 is the only pipeline that was supposed to go ahead at a defined timeline with most permits in place. Now it is pushed back by almost a year... Never any good news in Canadian energy it seems.
Alberta now has no choice but, to extend production cuts. Crude by rail ramp-up is unknown since dependent on WCS spreads so can't count on that.
CJ is down 5% so not quite muted reaction and it is visible in most names also. At the same time, it still generates appreciable free cash flow at this production level and oil prices including WCS which has weakened on this news. I think that people were expecting CJ to move back to the 21,000 - 22,000 boe/d level in H2 but, now we are talking possibly a year away. Dividend increase, or certainly size, may also be even more questionable as this puts another wrench into predicting WCS prices. I don't think that they want to raise then cut again on some unforeseen event as they already lost quite a bit of credibility.
However, I agree that there is not much point holding Canadian equities which cannot grow production and/or repay debt in this environment. So free cash flow is key and yes receiving a dividend could be the only return that we will see for a while as revaluation seems quite elusive.