It doesn't matter what TOS reports for Q4on March 19th since they have already telegraphed Q4 performance in their Jan 7th update.
What matters is actual unit sales numbers for Jan & Feb, basically YTD sales and installs, and remaining cash on hand.
The Oct 4th PR indicated their pipeline of opportunities exceeded 200+ units quoted, and that this number exceeded their existing inventory (why they had to mention this I don't know? It's not like manufacturing is going to have to start up any time soon?).
Anyway, I assume these quoted units were all generated by internal TOS sales staff since they had been direct selling in non Getinge accounts since Jan 21, 2018 (well over 8 months).
The Nov 7th Q3 filing indicated they had transferred in 200+ unit sales opportunities from Getinge (all of which have expected purchase decisions by year end 2019). FYI - per sedar TOS will pay some level of commission for all Getinge related bookings and revenue through YE 2019 (units, consumables & service).
The Jan 7th PR hi-lited the sale of its 100+ unit.
It's somewhat hazy but here are the numbers as reported from various TOS documents and filings;
Unit Sales Date Installed Shipped/pending installation Order Backlog = Total Sold
? Oct 4th 50+ ? ? >80
? Nov 6th 59 9 22 90
Q4 21 Jan 7th 66 12 24 102
Note the 50+ units installed as of Oct 4th 2018 is essentially the same as was reported under the Getinge agreement in Q4 2017, so not much progress there.
TOS booked orders for 21 units during Q4 2018, however 10 of these units were sold during the first 6 days of the quarter while the remaining 11 units were sold during the remaining ~85 days to the end of the year. So only 11 units for most of Oct, Nov and Dec. Somewhat concerning.
It's not hard to understand why TOS has lost the confidence of investors, but it seems there are still many who currently hold but wish they didn't?
At end of Q3 TOS had cash+equivalents of 16.1M, and as a result of the Courage financing and managements decision to defer interest payments during 2019 this debt is growing at ~2.1Mpa compounded, and this will be above and beyond existing losses from operations. Also not good.
Incidentally the Courage covenant does allow TOS to establish LOC's not exceeding 3 x trailing consumables revenue (which could be a lot since the 100 units already sold will soon generate 2.5Mpa). If these funds are ever needed for operations I'll be long gone as an investor (stock buyback - OK). But it does provide good business flexibliity.
In Robin Williams 'Scottish invention of golf' skit (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=03516xrCttg) he cited the purpose for the green flag. I suggest you take a minute to watch it :-)
Anyway, here's to hope.
TOS now has a full complement of (11) experienced industry related sales staff. These people have extensive relationships with exactly the people we need to sell to, and they have already been selling various sterilizers, HLD's, AER's and related equipment into these accounts. It's early days but I have not detected any sales staff turnover - which of course would be a big red flag.
If you are a career sales person you must as they say... ' sell whats on the truck ', regardless of whether it is good .. or not, more costly, hard to use, etc etc. than any competing product. If you work for the company you sell whats on the truck!
As a sales person the most coveted sales strategy you can employ is Frontal (see TAS Target Account Selling) and with all the advantages of the VP4, and coupled with its leading regulatory claims and the excellent 'in your face' frontal marketing documentation TOS now has, I would say they are in a great position to succeed.
One of the things I like the most is the singular focus of all TOS employee's, and particularly the sales staff. No multiple product lines to push, just one great product every day - go frontal and make as much money as possible. That's what is all about if you have the right sales people. Making quota ASAP and getting into over quota bonuses (and of course you're making patients safer as well :-).
But time is of the essence for investors. We need the remaining 205 inventory sterilizers sold this year and sooner is much better than some vague promise for Q4!
If TOS can deliver on that we will be well rewarded despite the Courage dilution.
Hopefully the March 19th update will provide the additional tangible evidence TOS investors are desperately seeking.
GL