RE:RE:RE:numbers look awful - maybe we go up?@baytex... The more you talk the more it’s obvious you don’t really know what you’re talking about no offence..
onviously Q4 was going to be terrible, oil prices averaged like $48 bucks lol what did you expect ?, look at every other oil company’s Q4 and tell me why you thought baytexs would magically be better than it’s peers?
anyways... looking forward... for people who actually want to talk about the important points rather than just running their mouths..., things are quite positive if you have any type of forward thinking skills... $200 mill of debt repayment this year if prices stay at $57 which not only will they hold $57 they’ll be higher.. I believe in Q2,3,4 prices will average $65+. 1)OPEC cuts 2)Saudi needs higher oil prices (even more so than baytex) and they will do whatever it takes to continue to drive the price upwards 3)US production flatlining with shale companies focusing on spending capital more efficiently rather than the old rhetoric of grow at all costs + decline rates kicking in hard 4)demand is robust growing at least 1.4 mill barrels per day 5)US/China trade deal around the corner
there are are many other catalysts for oil prices and also BTE on the horizon - like TMX update coming soon, provincial and federal elections this year as well, not to mention excellent 2019 hedging along with increased crude by rail.
BTE is a good company caught up in a poor price environment (but improving) and poor sentiment towards its industry. People often forget.. but just because a company’s share price is low doesn’t equate to them being all of the sudden some awful terrible company (this is actually the biggest rookie mistake investors make, this is when you buy companies not sell and run away like a little girl). There are a million other factors that go into the share price and most actually have nothing to do with the actual fundamentals and potential of a company.
If you believe oil prices will average $65+ over the next two years, which I do which is why Im
im invested in this sector, baytex is looking great. Every $1 gain in WTI above $57 is $30 million in profit to BTE bottom line. $65+ is not unrealistic at all and that would bring BTE FCF up from $200 mill to $400 mill ++.. a couple of years of that and they will be able to pay down debt by $800 million plus. They have no near term maturities, they have a ton of credit space as their credits are 50% undrawn. There is no point selling assets for pennies on the dollar right now. Management is making the right call, staying the course and understanding that there is great upside to oil prices right around the corner which Is all they need to turn this ship around ..
if you you don’t have the nuts to invest in this industry then go invest elsewhere, you can poop all over BTE because of a bad report which has 100% to do with the poor commodity price and nothing to do with baytex being a poor company which they aren’t. High oil prices will change everything. It is what it is but at least have the decency to stand by your ultra bullish calls you have been repeatedly making rather than just jump ship because they had a bad quarter like every single other producer.
long story short, for those of you who actually understand investing in this industry...buy the dip today, stay the course, higher oil prices are coming and with higher oil prices we will see baytex thrive.