Nutritional High International Inc. Ordinary Shares SPLID

RE:RE:RE:RE:What kind of revenue should we expect -- 5.1 million or X2?

[stockvet]

Great analysis. I would like to add that I wouldn't be surprised to see positive EPS again for Q2 2019 due to the 3 sales adding up to $3.5M CAD they did last November:

$743k USD
https://globenewswire.com/news-release/2018/11/06/1646079/0/en/Nutritional-High-Completes-Sale-and-Leaseback-of-Equipment-at-Its-Sacramento-Facility.html

$438k USD
https://globenewswire.com/news-release/2018/11/12/1650001/0/en/Nutritional-High-Completes-Sale-and-Leaseback-of-Equipment-at-Its-La-Pine-Oregon-Facility.html

$1.4M USD
https://globenewswire.com/news-release/2018/11/22/1655593/0/en/Nutritional-High-Completes-Sale-of-Luther-Property-in-Sacramento-California.html

Based on their latest investor deck, EAT had $7.8M CAD cash on December 27. I also like how they've pretty much integrated GT everywhere. It's just a matter of time.:
https://www.nutritionalhigh.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Nutritional-High-Investor-Presentation-Q1-2019-Web.pdf?fbclid=IwAR1souweUDwllT72TiE9ajSTIgIc4tiqlZKoQyWdIiMyjSun0TD-OC6RPv0

With revenue growth and similar operating expenses as Q1, the margins should increase as well. Exciting times for sure, we are in the midst of great revenue acceleration.

LiquidOctopus wrote: You have done some really careful analysis.  I'm also really appreciative that you ran both modest and blue sky scenarios.  The wildcards would be revenue from other states, which are neither yet wieghed in nor well understood, by people on this board.  Oregon could end up being worth $2 million/Q by the end of 2019 for heaven's sake.  

A over a month ago, I speculated $40-50 million/yr as the top range.  The response from the board walked me down a little (but not much).  I think it still safe to say that this company will be making over $35 million/yr about as fast as you can say gap up. 

You have a good understanding of the retail stock market.  Awesome Greede! 

Greede wrote:

Overall, I have to agree.  

Let's take some small baby steps from base case to blue sky scenarios.  

First, I think it is VERY fair to say (not including a penny of any other financial interests we have going on as an MSO) that we at minimum should generate the $5-$6m in the next quarterly numbers.  Given that we have access to 400 dispensaries and just maybe, now our FLI products are being sold there also - we should at least keep pace with overall California sales and it is HIGHLY unlikely that we would come in LOWER than last Q.   So the reason the base case scenario is still positive is that many institutional investors will have been watching this stock to see if our model is at least repeatable and perhaps sustainable and capable of growing. 

Investors have had to be a LOT more savvy than when the white hot sector would allow ROI to skyrocket just by throwing at dart at any ol' cannabis stock.   However we are seeing now that management matters as we watched APHRIA (temporarily) blow up through mgmt issues and NAMASTE plummet, again based on mgmt as they went from $3.74 to $0.76 in five months.

Folks waiting on our proof of concept, will then scan the market and see the new places to invest where the biggest potential returns are fewer and fewer. Many have already seen some of their biggest gains and that money will need a place to land. EAT will undeniably be one of those stocks if they continue to demonstrate this performance and stability.  

2 big quarters of $5+ million each, is going to make analysts eyes widen a bit and possible coverage initiated and then you'll have other cannabis companies look closer at them as well. Businesses like to gravitate to predictable, repeatable and growing assets.  The cannabis sector likes to invest in itself as we've seen with Aurora (and even EAT, having made great investments in other cannabusinesses).   Then of course, once those 2 things start moving, the retail guy perks up and sees we must be one of the last ships at the dock that is able to move upwards in a very exciting way few companies can yet do.   We'll attract that money and the spike moves should be impressive.  Once you see that first 25% move, all kinds of eyes start twitching and the $3000 to $5000 money starts coming in.  Lots of people will be dumping their dogs for quick returns on a major mover, short positions start getting covered and the moves then become exponential.

You'll note I haven't even put out my blue sky scenario! ha. 

What IF instead of just showing strong Q over Q growth of at LEAST $5-$6m, what if we actually do something a bit more impressive and hit closer to $8+ million?  I don't think that's impossible.  And while I actually think this or the next quarter could possibly do better than that, I won't go that far yet.  We haven't even included Green Therapeutics. 

Green Therapeutics makes about $500,000 CDN per month and we're poised to buy the other 25% which would be about $100,000 per month more of revenue. Soooooo that is sort of looking at $8m per quarter (once we can include a full quarter of GT's revenue) and that's assuming NO growth with Calyx.  What if Calyx does what I suggested?  That means (again, including no other revenue from anywhere else) that puts at a $10m / quarter company and an unofficial run rate of $40m per year.

Okay, at that point it's just simple math.  We would be profitable and if our stock price isn't well over $1 at that point, someone is going to offer us a tidy sum to buy us out because with our Cali and Vegas monies, that's a stinkin bargoon. 

Anyone see a flaw in this?

This simply tells me that we are MASSSSIVELY undervalued right now.  I have pah-lenty of shares already but when it comes to risk-reward, it's hard to beat this proposition.  

Ask yourself this, when do investors make the MOST ROI - ever?  It is always when no one wants the stock or no one knows about it.  We're checking off both of those boxes right there.

GREEDE RATING:   STRONG BUY
 

mrmonopoly wrote: Well we know that Calyx represents a majority of their revenue and they're growth is exponential right now. It's very difficult to say how the rest of their operations are performing but on Calyx alone I believe that a 25% increase over last quarter is to be expected as a minimum. (~$7.25M).