Storage figures today for the Lower 48Last week in its Natural Gas Weekly Update the EIA commented that if withdrawals from storage averaged -8.8Bcf/day for the balance of the withdrawal season, stocks would be 1,212Bcf on March 31st which would be 424 Bcf lower than the five-year average of 1,636Bcf for that time of year.
The amount in storage last week was 1539Bcf. This week’s withdrawal of -149Bcf was a surprise as it has now moved inventories down to where they were Mar 23/2018. So as of today, we are well ahead of that EIA projection.
But set the March 31st end of withdrawal season aside for a moment and note that there were 3 additional withdrawals, albeit small ones, in April last year of: -19, -36, -18 which may or may not happen this year. If it didn’t happen it could be a 73Bcf drag on matters and supportive of the EIA contention.
Nonetheless, if we were to have some of cold weather in the Midwest or North-East, we could easily blow by that EIA projection of 1212Bcf. and come in with an even lower figure. If so, this year’s storage exit number could come in at second place to all the figures since 2014. Winter 2013-14 was horrific, leaving the final exit storage number at an unbelievable 822Bcf. We won’t see the likes of that this year, but regardless, our final number will be supportive to prices going forward as replenishing low storage levels and meeting normal demand will provide a robust task for producers.