RE:Refining my valuation Modelhmmm, I did a calculation based on the pits depending on the results
-100 Millions of ore of lithium at 1%
-calculated a 5Mtpa (tons per annum of ore) which gives around 833k of spodumen concentrate
-put a CAPEX of 200M for concentrator (to create SC of 6%)
At a price of 600$ USD per ton, this gives 500M$USD per year of revenue.
I took OPEX cost of AVZ PFS, and added 20% over which gives a cost of 336USD per ton.
This gives a EBTIDA of 220M$USD per year
I calculated a loan of 200M for CAPEX at 16% interest rate over 4 years.
I calculated a 30% tax rate on profits
I calculated 32M of interest per year 4 first years.
I added a equity rising of 10 M$ at 10 cents (addin 100 M shares to float)
I used a Life of Mine of 20 years.
So basically with all those numbers, I arrive a a NPV price per share around 2,5$ per share.
So, not sure why the share price can still be around 3.5 cents per share... I would just be reloading if I had more cash at these level.
The only risk is that it's DRC....transport and logistics and the rest but still, I believe this is already built in while using a PE ratio of 1 only.
Am I missing something?