CanadaCoin wrote: "So that beggers the question of your opinion on the long term future of NMX, or, which is likely, you cannot give that opinion because it counters your short term agenda...."
Well, I don't know how to respond here Mick, for I have stated that I do not have an agenda, and I do not know what
you think my agenda is. :)
But suffice to say that I am already on record here stating that I never hold a junior resource stock through the financing, construction and commissioning phases of a mining/processing project. It just doesn't pay any more.
(Past) For example, NMX was trading at $2.40/share in Jan of 2018 and the Feasibility Study was not out yet. The stock got way ahead of itself, and was set up perfectly for a downward spiral. The FS came out soon thereafter with a project value of $2.4 billion. At the time, there were 500 million shares 'fully diluted'. So smart money started to sell off, knowing full well you would be close to 1 billion shares 'fully diluted'.....post financing. You can see the valuation was already trading at a $2.4 billion valuation and had yet to go through 3 years of risky construction and commissioning. With financing complete, Nemaska has now stated that the Project Valuation is $2.2 billion, due to the Financing Structure [all post tax figures, seeing as how Nemaska will have to pay tax]
(Present) We are all aware of the $400 million short fall, and there is still two years to go to full production. But it would seem there is some great upside reward, even if the Project Valuation is knocked down to say $1.7 billion [new financing structure still unknown]. Risk has increased, reward has decreased.
(Future) If Nemaska somehow manages to construct and commission this mine/processing plant without any further cash short falls, or delays over the next two years.......well, that would be a first in this industry. The question is not if.....but how much! Many here feel the new financning will come in the form of debt, for they don't want to see any further dilution and I can't really them. But if there are indeed delays, the increased debt load will hurt them severely. If the first round of debt was at 11.5%, then you can be sure the second round will be much higher than that.
Bottom line Mick.....today the stock trades at a market cap of $350 million. I believe a fair buyout target would be $600-700 million. But if Nemaska is indeed to move forward to full production with their shareholders, and there are absolutely no delays, no further cash short falls, no further dilution.....then you could have a $1.7 billion valuation to look forward to in early 2021. And of course there are many other variables that could drop or increase that value, such as the price of lithium at the time of production, the OPEX costs, the mine grade, etc, etc, etc.
Downside? It could all fall apart *. Risk vs Reward. Buy/sell as you see fit. I wish everyone here would make a killing.
* (But this is not to say that Whabouchi lithium will not make it into the global supply chain without NMX shareholders. For it will due to global demand.)
mick1888 wrote: Good afternoon (where I come from) CanadaC
Being a good Catholic Bloke, lets say I buy into your description of yourself and your motives, then it is only short termism that you focus on, that is quite obvious. So that beggers the question of your opinion on the long term future of NMX, or, which is likely, you cannot give that opinion because it counters your short term agenda.... ;-D
Come on Canada, gives us a long term view of NMX.... lol
CanadaCoin wrote: Good morning Mick! For the most part, that last post of mine was 'tongue-in-cheek'.....right? :)
"Can you please explain to all us naive, non investor people what this game is all about." Sure, but why would you believe me? But I'll give it a go...
First of all, I hate extreme pumpers! I hate extreme bashers! And I hate stock market fraud!
I was invested in NMX back in 2014 and posted on this very board back then [different handle of course, for Stockhouse has a way of messing up their memberships.....poor technology here as you know]. I have followed NMX ever since, and only started to read and post here after the monetary short fall news came out last month. As an experienced retail investor, I know to take this news as very serious. But I was utterly surprised with the amount of false information and the pumping of such on this board. So I naturally react and counter it.
Why? I am genuinely concerned for the less experienced. I know this is difficult to swallow, for every human being must have an ulterior motive these days....at least in the anonymous cyber space. :)
Why do I have more of a negative slant than positive? Simple....there is more than enough pump and positive fundamentals posted here. Actually, I would say that because of the extreme pump here....but it is better now.....it just pushes me further to the extreme cautionary side. As long as the board is balanced I am happy.
So why don't I come down on Calgary? Well, from what I have read from others here, he is pretty much the only poster who has displayed any form of accuracy in their due diligence over the years. And I guess he has a right to continue with his warnings. Can't say I am a fan of his lack of humility with it all, but I do hold out more 'hope' than he does. Calgary will not always get it right, and neither will I.
I mean, I could go on and on. But like I said earlier....no one will believe that someone can be truly genuine and has nothing to gain with their posting. :)
Blessings my friend!
mick1888 wrote: CanadaC your fact checks seem to be rather bias towards 'dissing' positive NMX posts, with no (or little) comment on negative posts. Although your not upfront about it, the impression given is that people should 'get out' of NMX which is disingenuous on your part. What I honestly do not understand is that this tactic will only re-cycle short term shares as I doubt very much if any long would be interested in selling up (we're in this for different reasons). Can you please explain to all us naive, non investor people what this game is all about.... ;-)
Happy St 'Little John' day
CanadaCoin wrote: I receive numerous private messages asking me to continue to fact check posts here on the NMX Board. As time consuming as that is, here goes... ;-)
"big major company like Ford,Volkwagen and others confirmed their intention to fast-track the EV market penetration, thus translating into higher demand for lithium." For those who have followed this EV sector since Tesla came into existence, have witnessed this very common news headline on a repetitive basis.
"With the last PR at NMX regarding formers high level manager at Investment Quebec joining on board for the financial package...." NO, Sequin [with IQ ties] was appointed to the 'Board of Directors', and not the 'special committee' to review all strategic alternatives.
I know, I know, that is not to say that Sequin will not be called upon to offer financing advice. Remember, I was only asked to fact check and keep the record straight. ;-)
Good luck today, looks like a little rallying taking place.
TheAdvisor.FRWM wrote: I have received a lot of private message about updates on my thought of NMX.
Nothing much have changed, expect 2 facts
1- big major company like Ford,Volkwagen and others confirmed their intention to fast-track the EV market penetration, thus translating into higher demand for lithium.
2- Finally, t
he Quebec budget seems very positive for Nemaska, as it open doors for additionnal government help, and more interest from the government to secure local ressources and/or high value added projects.
With the last PR at NMX regarding formers high level manager at Investment Quebec joining on board for the financial package,
with close ties with the governement, combined with allowance of additionnals billions from their former investment group, can only be positive for NMX outcome.
Thoses two points are high level but points torward positive outcome for Nemaska.
Thanks
Advisor
TheAdvisor.FRWM wrote: As I posted the days after the news for additional fundings. There is 3 simple way to raise money at this point :
1)share (kill the company because of the float size),
2) debts (unlikely but possible on a small scale because of the level of leverage already integrated in the financial package).
3) Selling stream, ( was already an option since 10% was left, now up to 35% with livent stream recently available.
It will certainly be a small portion of #1 combined with a large portion of #3. Why would you sell sample to 20 potentials clients if it was to issue shares significantly?... Simply sell yourself and get what you can. The Grade is in the 5% most rare worldwide while the deposit is top 3 worldwide. Lithium is a key component for the next century and every smart money institutionnal know it.
I believe the deal will be from 80-100% from selling stream, while there should be a little part of warrents (best case) or straight share (worst case) to finalize it. What is sure is :
- Majors from industry says Lithium demand is growing bigger than expected
- 90% of project since 2014 has failed to a) ramp up (for current producers) or b) simply move forward as expected for exploration stage.
Combine both factor, and you realize how Valuable is NMX with his 1yr from production + large deposit + high grade + strategic position in Qc with low cost electricity.
This is a strong buy, and it's probably why 7 out of 7 firms covering the venture have 0.50$ to 1.50$ cents Price target on the venture.
Good luck to all
/////
Thing to consider also is 1.4 B was raised at 1.1$/share. There is no way 80% of the funders will accept the remaining 20% to be a 30-40cents/share, Except if it's them, or a part of them.
Think about it, in their position they will probably ask for a discount or take it all but will never accept another comers paying 30% what they paid when the project was more early stage and riskier.
Retails getting flushed and selling to smart money in the comming days.
Read more at https://stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard/v.nmx/nemaska-exploration-inc?postid=29427666#pYiIBzx2AW6of0zx.99