GREY:RNKLF - Post by User
Post by
pierregon Mar 25, 2019 6:15pm
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Post# 29533906
Q4 2018 financial with probable profits
Q4 2018 financial with probable profitsLast year RNX adjusted EBITDA for the year ending December 31, 2017 was a loss of $12.2 million or $0.04 per share compared to a loss of $4.5 million or $0.02 per share in 2016. How will that stack up compared to 2018? The production numbers are significantly lower than anticipated yet RNC Minerals cash position is seemingly very robust and bodes well for the eventual Q4 financial, end of March:
Key highlights as of November 30th 2018 (January 9th Prospectus 2019) with additional funds, from the following:
-net estimated $135,032.31 from closing the over-allotment: $150,035.90 gross – 10% = $135,032.31 net as before over-allotment gross was $8,999,900 – 10% = 8,1 M$. net;
-BatteryOne Acquires Royalty on Dumont: amongst other things, acquisition price is C$2 million in cash.;
-6,459 ounces of specimen inventory calculated at $1390 net of all processing, royalties and sales costs = $8,978,010
From the January 25th news release, highlighted by @Brandy:
«Milled 21,574 with sales of 19.5 ounces in Q4 at est $1252 = US $24,414,000 million in sales estimated for Q4. Good numbers. I had a high range of Revenue at 32 million for Q4. Looks like this will be exceeded when financials are reported. Financials could report 16 million in additional profit for the quarter. Sales are 19.5k ounces and gold inventory OF 20,000 OUNCES is increasing. Physical forward Hedge strategy is a tremendous upside bonus that we all need to understand. That’s how they fund it with cash on hand and 20,000 ounces held in reserve plus the specimen bonus which is upwards of 30% or more man some people just don’t get it. Our RNX has terrific revenue to report in the upcoming financials way too much money here for there to be a selloff the shorts are getting desperate. The current drilling program is more than paid off already by the current profits. » 20,000 ounces held in reserve that will likely be sold including specimens getting upwards of a 30% premium. If calculated with $1390 net of all processing, royalties and sales costs = $27,800,000 without premium for specimens and November 30th the company had 6,459 ounces of specimen inventory. N.B.: $1390 was calculated as per the Prospectus = 17,600,000 / 12660 ounces = $1390 per ounce.
Also, as per @Geodan on CEO.ca February 22nd 2019 RNX 4Q will have big profit kicker, extra $5 million profit as per accounting: «4Q will have big profit kicker, the SEC voodoo accounting that generated a big fake loss on options, will get reversed out quite a bit. Maybe a $5 million extra profit as a result in 4Q. Have not done the math. But: "The share-based payments expense of $8.9 million in the period was higher than the same period of 2017 by an $8.6 million increase in as a result of the mark-to-market adjustments relating to a higher market price for the Corporation's common shares on September 30, 2018 relative to the beginning of the period." So extra $5 million profit seems about right. »
Finally, from @lexcon: «From note 4 of table 3 of the NR "As of December 31, 2018, 64.8 kt of gold mineralization remained on the ROM pad for tolling" 64800 T*3.5g/T=226,800 grams gold = 7293 oz gold * 1300usd = $9,480,000usd well, there is some of the money they need. Also, the PP revenue as well as the cash on hand plus specimen gold sales.(minus the cost of drilling which will not use it all up) I think they can keep the lights on long enough to get update FS out and restart mining. Also, with essentially zero long term debt and with a credit facility in place they can use debt as needed short term without having to do another PP or equity raise. »
Drilling all-in costs are $170 per meter as per the Prospectus and will likely be paid off by the profits and cash on hand.
In summary:
-$8,235,032 from the PP;
-$2,000,000 from Battery One;
-Sales estimated at $32,000,000 for Q4 as per @Brandy;
-Profits as per @Brandy and @Geodan estimation: $16 M + 5 M = $21,000,000;
-20,000 gold oz reserve as per @Brandy: $27,800,000 @$1390 per ounce;
-Possible 30% premium for specimens;
-$9,480,000 USD estimated by @lexcon from 64.8 kt of gold mineralization. https://web.tmxmoney.com/article.php?newsid=8283580954127678&qm_symbol=RNX https://web.tmxmoney.com/article.php?newsid=6842954038606303&qm_symbol=RNX https://web.tmxmoney.com/article.php?newsid=6842954038606303&qm_symbol=RNX https://www.batteryoneroyalty.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/BatteryOne-NR-Dumont-Jan-22-2019.pdf