RE:RE:RE:and in 9 month time....I don't see a great deal of downside risk in this stock due to the number of options that are currently active and I see a couple of potential upside catalysts.
Also I see an interesting trading cycle in this stock. In 2016, 2017 and 2018 the stock hit its highs for the year in the first week of August. For those of us who try to lighten up at the higher end of the price range and load up with more shares at the lower end, this has been a good stock to play with. The stock doesn't always hit the low end of its 52 week range on the same date, but it's easy enough to see when it's at the 52 week low - then just wait a bit to see if it holds or breaks down a little more.
There are now several claims I like for option activity. Del Norte shows well in the VTEM results and more work this year could add information for potential buyers. Fiji continues to be within a few meters of Homestake and there is a showing right at the boundary - someone will notice sooner or later. The Harry property is right in the middle of the area where both Ascot and Pretium have been moving to expand their holdings. Any claims on the Kyba Red Line could draw interest as other companies continue to build portfolios in the G/T.
A few of the optioned properties have shown good results over time. Pretium eventually will explore one or more of the several claims it bought from Teuton as it looks for the next VOK. I expect Tudor to continue paying Teuton in stock for the optioned claims. This could work out well if Tudor hits in Goldstorm, or it there is a good deal for the tunnel route. The Tudor stock Teuton took this year at $.30 is already up about 30%.
And of course there is T/C and the potential for a good exploration year with Mr. Konkin involved.
Newcrest paying $807 million for only 70% of Red Chris and its 20 million oz. of gold in the ground set a very high market price of over $56 per ounce Au in the ground. This is well over the median price for the past 20 years per Cipher Research data, and yet analysts feel Newcrest did not overpay.
The price of gold is a wild card, but appears stable at the moment with the U. S. dollar at a high level (I think there is some potential for the dollar to drop, increasing the gold price), geopolitical events pretty active, governments buying physical gold, the U. S. stock market range-bound, and other factors.
There are never any guarantees in this business, but when I look at some of the dynamics that exist I think the probabilities are good for an acceptable return this year (by the first week in August of course) as we've had in the past few years since the Tudor/Pretium options were intiated. If the stock goes back to $.24 as a high this year I get an 80% gain on whatever I sell - my average cost this year is $.13333 CDN$ - and I'll take that any year. But even if it only gets to $.18 I still get 35% - and that's fine too.
Don't see why folks are down on this stock the way it's performed between the highs and lows over the past few years. I guess if you're looking for a Garibaldi type event you would be disappointed or if you bought at $.75 and are still waiting to break even you would be maybe blue in the face from holding your breath for so long. Clearly there have been some nasty bumps along the way with the litigation and the consolidation and some dilution through PP's when no option money is coming in. Obviously, we need to look out for those possible events and take action in advance if we can.
Do your own due diligence. Good luck to all. Doug