RE:oil consolidates above $60Hello Jospeh, yes the more days we continue putting up these realizations is a bigger step towards that end. There is a spring being coiled here with this widening spread. It could have been a gradual move, but the market has opted against that, discounting now a whole qtr and $17 move in oil, what is being titled in the press this am as the largest 1 qtr move in 10 years.
It's funny, i'm watching oil reaching up to 61 and we are just over 7k traded on the day, still down here in the 6.40's. Same price range as Christmas range. The level of discouting to continue trading at these levels is incredible.
I really do see events unfolding as you say, the setup is there. The response in BNE stock I really have no clue on anymore. Heck I believed back in q4 with low 40's wti that there would be a significant recovery in oil, and differenetials continue to improve... and BNE would spring higher. Aha we know how that has gone.
You mentioned 50-60mm, which is what i'm seeing - i have the company running at $60mm from fridays spread and todays prints.
$50-60mm is also a good bet for where 2019 lands given the current thresholds. Prices need to hold above WTI $57 for the year average with current spreads. We put up about $55 avg for q1, so we have $2 to spread between 3 qtrs at 67cens apiece: call it $58 for qtrs 2-4.
| WTI Price | 57 | | | |
| diff | -4.7 | | | |
| exchange | 1.32 | | | |
| | 69.04 | | | |
| Quality dis. | -3.25 | | volume | $$/ Day |
| Realized | $65.79 | | 7900 | $519,709.40 |
| | | | | |
| AECO | $1.90 | | 23750 | $45,125.00 |
| NGL’s | $41.42 | | 850 | $35,208.36 |
| | | | 12708 | $600,042.76 |
| | | /boe | | |
| Revenue | $219,015,607.40 | $47.22 | | |
| COP: | | | | |
| Gorr @ 4.1% | $8,979,639.90 | $1.94 | | |
| Crown @ slide | $14,674,045.70 | $3.16 | | |
| OPEX | $65,867,291.67 | $14.20 | | |
| SG&A | $6,957,812.50 | $1.50 | | |
| Interest | $15,500,000.00 | $3.34 | | |
| COP | $111,978,789.77 | $24.14 | /qtr | |
| Op netback | $107,036,817.63 | $23.08 | $26,759,204.41 | |
| | | | | |
| Share Comp | $1,268,000.00 | $0.27 | | |
| Depreciation | $90,400,000.00 | $19.49 | | |
| Net Income | $15,368,817.63 | | /qtr | |
| EPS | $0.46 | | $0.12 | |
| | | | | |
| Add: Dep/dpr. | $90,400,000.00 | | | |
| Less: Sus. Capex | -$57,000,000.00 | -$12.29 | | |
| Normalized Income | $48,768,817.63 | | | |
| Norm EPS | $1.47 | | $0.37 | |
| | | | | |
| Add: Interest | $15,500,000.00 | $3.34 | | |
| EBITDA | $122,536,817.63 | | | |
| | | | | |
| add: G&A | $6,957,812.50 | $1.50 | | |
| add: GORR | $8,979,639.90 | | | |
| Less: Sus. Capex | $57,000,000.00 | $12.29 | | |
| Free Flow – assets | $81,474,270.04 | | | |
| | | /share | | |
| BNE FCF | $50,036,817.63 | $1.51 | $12,509,204.41 | |