RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:WTI up a buck "IF you were a CEO of a USA shale play company...and back in December and January you did roadshows to investment analysts saying your 2019 production guidance is going to be a 10-15% production increase,,,,would you be really dropping rigs in March and risking not making your production numbers for 2019?"
I think that you are naive Kavern if you believe everything that these shameless promoters are saying. They will dance until the music stop and then will do a bunch of write-offs, claim that they have the right solution to get out of trouble, etc.
None of these companies have ever generated free cash flow, paid much of a dividend, etc. Their decline rates are through the roof and if they slow down at all or at 10-15% growth (as they are now per rig count, per completion companies), they will not grow production enough to generate meaningful extra cash to offset declines.
There is a purgatory period between fast growth and living within your means and I think that is why these U.S. shale producers sell close to 52 week lows. Investors are seeing this transition coming and that is bad news for them: lower growth, little to no free cash flow, no cash to return to investors.
As a watcher of Mr. Market you must know that there is something brewing down there.
Do you also believe that Schlumberger would go around saying that their numbers would be bad in U.S. shale if that wasn't true?
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