RE:RE:Comment on Palladium MarketAccording to Johnson Matthey, 'the underlying ‘structural’ deficit in palladium is forecast to approach 1 million oz in 2019' (see p. 20 of
https://www.platinum.matthey.com/documents/new-item/pgm%20market%20reports/pgm_market_report_february_2019.pdf). This assessment of the palladium market has been confirmed not only by NAP but also by Norilsk Nickel, Implats, Amplats, Sibanye Stillwater. and now Platinum Group Metals. The industry experts recognise a severe structural deficit that will prevail for at least for two years. There is no evidence thus far of substitution with platinum on the grounds of high retooling costs and technological shortcomings in comparison with palladium. It should be noted that mainstream bank analysts, who cover a broad range of commodities, have little understanding of the palladium market.
The recent weakness in palladium has all the hallmarks of algorithmically driven trading, which follows price momentum. At this point, however, palladium is extremely oversold with an RSI of 38. Accordingly, the price weakness is becoming unsustainable even before taking the fundamental structural deficit into account.