RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:US traders shorting this like crazy! - what do they know?If I owned warrants I would sell first and exercise later.
If the share price fell below the sell price and before I exercised maybe I just buy back the short position.
From what I can see a lot of the warrant holders are working with the company to generate the cash they need through warrant redemption - a good thing.
Generally speaking your assertion about not sticking around through a full clinical trial is correct.
That said I think TLT is a special case worth thinking about carefully. Based on a small sample size they have already achieved the results in their Phase 1 they need to prove in a larger sample size for the Phase 2 so there is less risk of failure. The health impacts will tend to be "front loaded" at the time of the treatment so we will know early on the safety issues. We know that this treatment kills cancer so I have little reason to believe that they will not be successful in getting patients through the 1 year finish line.
We know they are planning to launch at lease one phase 1 for another cancer indication and that should juice the share price.
At any time the company could close a partnership deal that could significantly increase the share price. If the Phase 2 results are published on a regular basis the world will know soon enough just how effective the treatment is - once the bulk of the warrants are exercised the increases in the share price will be far more pronounced as new buyers take positions.
I have bought and sold TLT a number of times - buy the rumour and sell the news. But not this time! There is a huge reward for staying the course. That pathway is less than 6 years away. The technology is largely derisked and there is every reason to believe they will get fast tracked if they can prove the treatment statistically is safe and effective.
Of course if investors start to take notice so will institutional investors and ultimately other drug companies. When remains a bit of a mystery but certaintly well before regulatory approval; four years or less.
Meanwhile technical patterns are signaling a $1.05 to $1.15 share price within the next 9-12 months and that aligns well with the company fundamentals - results from the phase 2 and maybe the phase 1 will be available by then. Will patients #5 and 6 still be cancer free next January? If yes it keeps alive the possiblity this is a "cure" and that my friend will drive a lot of speculative buying...